Invest Humbly

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Foreign. [00:00:03] Speaker B: What's up, Matt? Welcome to Intelligent Investment Live. The. The objective. I can't talk today. And we're live. The Objectively optimistic podcast featuring Matt Dahl of arpg, co hosted and promoted by myself, Garrett Lill with Wealth Partners. Pleasure to see you as always, buddy. And I love the. You got to repeat what you just said there. The shirt that you're wearing today. What would it be called if you were wearing. If you were. If it was a Home Depot color? [00:00:31] Speaker C: Oh, it was like a paint color. [00:00:32] Speaker B: Yeah, it was a paint color. Home Depot. [00:00:34] Speaker C: How they give them, like, weird names like Cloudy Day and, you know, a Agreeable gray and. Yeah, this. Oh, you'd have to 100 call this table grapes. [00:00:47] Speaker B: Table grapes. Yeah, because you said it was a pink shirt, and I'm just. I'm not seeing it as pink, but then again, I'm not. You know, sometimes the computer screen can. Can throw things off. [00:00:56] Speaker C: You know what it is? It's a fuchsia. Heather. [00:01:00] Speaker B: Fuchsia Heather. [00:01:01] Speaker C: It's like that. Heather. [00:01:03] Speaker B: That's my ex wife's name. [00:01:05] Speaker C: And it's a nice fuchsia. So if you really didn't like somebody, you would paint their room this color or buy them bed sheets that were this color, but then they might look like some sort of a deviant. [00:01:20] Speaker B: Oh, man. So I have a. Do you sit around all week long and try to think of just strangely random things to say? I mean, because I do. I'll randomly go on walks and be like, this would be a really funny, stupid thing to say on a podcast. I think I'll do that. Do you do the same thing, or does it come naturally for you? I have to prepare to be an idiot. [00:01:36] Speaker C: Oh, no, no, no. My brain is just completely broken. There's holes in it and squirrels living in those little holes. It's terrible. [00:01:44] Speaker B: I was thinking about this if there was a good place to say this in the. In the podcast. You know, I think one of the things that makes us a little bit unique is that we do recognize that. That there is a gap in knowledge and wisdom between us and others in the industry. And that's common. I think a lot of people in the industry recognize that there's a gap in knowledge, intelligence, wisdom, whatever the difference in you and I is. We're not really sure which side of that deficit we're on. Are we lacking in knowledge compared to our peers, or are we the only ones who have the enlightenment? [00:02:18] Speaker C: I think it changes week to week, you know, minute by minute. [00:02:21] Speaker B: To me, brother. [00:02:23] Speaker C: You know, I Would say that barn burner of a show we did last week, they would think, you know, we're probably lacking. But you know, here's the thing is to use your, to, to coin your term, I think we get a lot of wood on the ball compared to others. [00:02:38] Speaker B: That's the name of the game. You know, it's, it's, you know, it's all, all can decide. We've talked about, you know, a good investor, a professional, the best professional money manager. Right. 60% of the time, you know, in baseball that you use the phrase get the wood on the ball, because if you can get one on the ball and get it in the right gap 30% of the time, you're in the hall of Fame. 35, you're an all time goat, right? So, I mean, you're missing the. The greatest hitters of all time failed 65% of the time. And investing is somewhat like that. I mean, you just gotta, you gotta make sure that you're getting, like I said, we're on the ball and staying in the ballpark, and we do. I was talking to somebody last week about you and I said, you know, it's we all or face humility from time to time and get things right, get things wrong. But in a couple of years now, doing this, you're. It's been fun to watch a lot of the things you say play out. I even kind of joke or, you know, in my head, I'll hear somebody say something once in a while that contradicts something you say. And it's like, you poor soul, you have no idea. Matt's already said the opposite. You're going to be wrong. [00:03:41] Speaker C: Well, you know, listen, the thing is, I think what makes us what we, what we strive for is learning more than anything, right? [00:03:51] Speaker A: And being. [00:03:53] Speaker C: But you really learn when you get it wrong, right? [00:03:55] Speaker B: That's true. [00:03:55] Speaker C: So I guess I was a beneficiary of a tremendous amount of learning for a very long period of time. I learned a lot. I really, really did. So you learn those lessons and you get those scars, and those scars are deep. And you know, you remember because you see them, you know, and the last thing you want to do is repeat them. So sometimes it might be a different restaurant with a different name, but you, but you recognize the menu. [00:04:23] Speaker B: What was it? What was the line you had one time? I really like this. Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want. Did I say that right? [00:04:30] Speaker C: Yeah. Experience is what you get when you didn't get what you wanted. That's Howard Marks. [00:04:34] Speaker B: Yeah, that's a good quote. [00:04:36] Speaker C: So I, you know, I've gotten a lot of experience because, you know, I knew exactly what was going to happen. And here's what's funny is the. Every time I've been very convicted in a belief and was sure about something, that's when it went exactly the opposite way, you know, and it, and it never changes. So, you know, it's important to really look at the data that shows up. Not the data that you hope to get or the data that you want to look at or the data that agrees with you, but all the data, and do your best. The best thing people can do is not engage in confirmation bias. [00:05:14] Speaker A: Right? [00:05:15] Speaker C: And there's so much confirmation bias, you know, whether it be on, you know, Bloomberg or CNBC or wherever it is or any, any, any podcast. And it's hard not to do because you have a lot of good advisors or good managers out there, and they spend a lot of time and effort on their, on their portfolios and they believe in these things. And there's another old saying, being right doesn't necessarily mean being right right away. [00:05:41] Speaker A: Okay. [00:05:42] Speaker C: It takes time. So, you know, it's important that we, you know, we have a little bit of an easier job here. It's both easier and harder because we tend to look at things. Most of our conversations are based on what's going to happen in the next. Between now and then, probably three to six months out, and then what we think is going to happen maybe into next year. Right. So, you know, it's, it's, it makes it kind of difficult because a lot can, A lot can happen, but a lot of times that most. That puzzle is put together for us, and we can, we can infer what these likely outcomes will be based on the data that we have and based on how the market's looking at things and based on what, how the market's deciding on these things. So, you know, if we revert back to several weeks ago, where we talked about, you know, what we think July is going to bring and where are we headed? I mean, yeah, we kind of knew July was going to be up. I think we even said it can be about 2%, as I believe what we said, and not that we're doing a victory lap. And then as we get into August and September, probably sometime first, second week of August, we'll start to see a distribution cycle beginning. Okay, so What'd you say? [00:06:51] Speaker B: First or second week of August? What's today? August 1st? [00:06:54] Speaker C: August 1st. So, you know, it's again, I think it's starting a little bit early, but I think this is likely the beginning of a distribution cycle that probably takes us six weeks, eight weeks. But we're not splitting the atom or curing cancer here. This is the right time of year. It's a seasonally weak time. We normally have bad August and bad Septembers. You know, I think we've talked about this before for you. You wanna, if you could just invest in nine months out of the year and stay away from August, September, February, you'd probably do pretty well. [00:07:22] Speaker A: Right? [00:07:24] Speaker C: But there has to be a catalyst. And we got that catalyst today. We got that catalyst today. And this is, this is back to who is righter and who is wronger. And Trump apparently continues to be righter and PAL continues to be wronger because not only do we only have 73,000 jobs posted for the month of July, June was Revised down to 14,000 and collectively May and June were revised down by 298,000 collectively. That's insane. [00:07:51] Speaker B: So we went from, to interject there. So this is backwards looking, right? We're not forward looking here. So basically for the last two or three months, you've been looking at the data and saying we need to be thinking about a cut because it's not. And again, you're not. I always find it a challenge for myself to remind myself it's not that you're a doomsayer or you're calling for a crash or anything like that. You're just looking at things and saying, look, it's the right time. As you said several times, you don't fix the roof when it's leaking, you fix it before it's leaking. You're just looking at the data and saying we need to go ahead and start preparing with monetary policy for what the data seems to be suggesting. And now, if I'm understanding you correctly, what we're finding out is you started saying this, I don't know exactly when, but I think around June, July, ish, we had the huge snapback rally from April 8, April 9, and then it was sometime after that had gotten pretty comfortably into that cycle that you started to say we need to start looking at this. And now you're saying that looking back, they've revised the numbers that were live. When you were saying those things, we were actually the, the data is worse than what we were projecting it or what they thought it was at the time. Is that, am I summarizing that fairly? [00:09:01] Speaker C: Right. And the, the data is going to continue in this direction and Therefore, that's where we, we stuck to our, our three rate cuts, plus or minus one, right? So call it two to four and, but we lean in the direction of four and we're leaning in the direction of four still. So I know, I think the street has it at 1.7. It might have popped up today. I haven't looked at it today yet. But you know, that's, it's vacillated from, you know, basically no rate cuts to about maybe the most two rate cuts this year. But I think we're going to get more. I mean, here's the thing is if you look at, if you look at the pendulum of, the pendulum of a clock, right, and you cut into thirds and you have, and it swings from, you know, the economy is doing great to the economy is neutral to the economy is going into recession, right, or contracting well when it starts to cool off and come into a neutral or normal zone. If you're restricting the economy in order to cool it off because you have inflation, which is exactly what they did. It's 2022 and 2023, okay? And it's starting to cool off, which it started to in 2024, now into 2025, it's not going to stop where you want it to because that's where you want it to stop. It's going to, it's going to continue on the path that you put it on via your restrictive monetary policy. And it's going to go right through normal, right into contraction, which is exactly what's happening. And the problem is, is when it contracts, it really starts to get into the labor market. Labor went from 4.1 to 4.2%. Unemployment today, 4.2% is perfectly fine. It's a nice healthy number. But Rafael Bostic, the Atlanta Fed president, got on today and he talked about that this data was actually quite moving for him. And you know, it's, he, they're not ignoring it. And I, and I, and I can appreciate that, that he said that, but then he immediately said, you know, we're looking, as we look at the numbers, inflation's still a little high as they're looking at it year over year. They shouldn't be looking at it year over year. They know better. They need to look at core PCE month over month. You know, looking at three to four month numbers, annualized out. And what does that really come to? That comes to 2.2%, not 2.8%. Okay, so PCE four month annualized is 2.2%, 2.3 to 5%, actually. Okay, so here we are 2.25% and we have now, we now have a three month job average creation of 37,000 jobs a month. That's it. [00:11:31] Speaker A: Okay. [00:11:32] Speaker C: Yesterday that number was 150,000. [00:11:35] Speaker A: Okay. [00:11:35] Speaker C: But because May and June were collectively Revised down by 298,000 and July only showed up with 73,000 and I fully expect July to be revised way, way down. So when the number comes out in September and the, for when the, when the August number, when the August unemployment number comes out or employment number comes out in 1st of September, okay. I expect the July number to be revised down and I wonder what the May, June, July numbers are going to look like. Okay, when the July number is revised now it's probably, it's probably going to be really, really bad. And, and I think that's going to be, that's going to be the catalyst that starts the, the Fed really taking a dovish stance. We will probably also have a chair nominee, Fed chair nominee here pretty soon, probably before the end of the year and we'll start to get a different tone out of the, out of the Federal Reserve. The other thing is, is back to what Bostic was saying as he was saying that, you know, well, inflation is still a little bit higher than we like and unemployment is okay, so we're not really, we don't, we want to see the full picture before we change policy rate. Well, by the time you see the full picture, it's going to be too late. [00:12:48] Speaker A: Okay. [00:12:49] Speaker C: That's why you guys have, I mean, the reason the United States has all of these agencies and spends billions upon billions of dollars collecting this data and aggregating this data and trying to make, you know, make decisions based on this data is so that there can be decisions made before there's a problem, not after there's a problem. [00:13:09] Speaker A: Okay. [00:13:10] Speaker C: So, you know, I don't know if this is a bigger discussion to have with like, you know, academics tend to do these kinds of things, but directionally they, they should have cut. Okay, they should, they should have cut. They should have cut this week. We kind of knew they weren't going to, but they should have. I guess they, they should have and they shouldn't have. They should have for the reasons of. [00:13:32] Speaker B: Yeah, we talked about that last week. [00:13:34] Speaker C: That they shouldn't have because they don't want to look like, you know, yeah, the President's putting pressure on them to cut. So they did because that removes that era, that era of independence that they need to have, which I, which I understand too. But the thing is, is, you know, how's that going to affect the stock market, which what people really care about? I think, I don't think the problem will persist deep enough or long enough to really get into the stock market. What it actually could do is cause the stock market to go up. And I know that sounds backwards, but what's going to happen is it's going to become an employer's market instead of an employee's market. [00:14:10] Speaker A: Okay. [00:14:11] Speaker C: Which means companies are going to ask their employees to do more for the same money or do, or do the same for less money. [00:14:17] Speaker A: Okay. [00:14:18] Speaker C: Which will be good for margin. [00:14:20] Speaker A: Okay. [00:14:21] Speaker C: So what I think we're going to get, I think we're going to get an increase in margin. [00:14:25] Speaker A: Okay. [00:14:25] Speaker C: And I think that will help earnings. I think we'll probably have into next year. We'll have relatively flat sales growth but decent earnings growth. [00:14:36] Speaker A: Okay. [00:14:36] Speaker C: Because I don't, I don't see a lot of sales growth happening that maybe the labor market will get into top line sales, but they'll, a lot of these companies will, you know, become more efficient based on the cost of labor being relatively flat. And if you look at the, how that involves inflation is services is basically 70 of the economy, right. Labor in services, I want to say is about 75% of services. [00:15:01] Speaker A: Okay. [00:15:02] Speaker C: So it is a huge component of the inflation calculation. [00:15:06] Speaker A: Labor, okay. [00:15:07] Speaker C: So the fact that labor is now, I think going to absolutely 100% rollover inflation, if these people are worth their weight that they say they are, I would think all the nerds in the Federal Reserve would think, okay, well we're going to see the employment cost index really start to roll over. So forward inflation is going to look really light. So we can start to take, not again, not accommodate, but take restriction away. You know, we're looking at, we're looking at a GDP. John Hotzius came on this morning. We're running one percent below normal GDP, running about one and a half percent. We should run two and a half percent. [00:15:43] Speaker A: Okay. [00:15:44] Speaker C: So why are we running at one and a half percent GDP? We're only creating 37,000 jobs, you know, over the last three months collectively, which will probably, which will probably be revised down to much lower than that. But yet we still have a massively restrictive economy, okay. Our policy rate. So something needs to give and it needs to give quick. So I think we're probably going to see a 25% or 25 basis point cut September, probably a 50 basis point cut in November and then a 25 basis point cut in September, so we'll probably get our floor. [00:16:19] Speaker B: You know, it's, it's funny when you're. And I want to, I want to. There's a lot of different angles on this, I guess. So you were talking about humility earlier, and I think one of the things that humility is a strength and a gift. And I think especially to investors, the more humble you can be and the more you can acknowledge the fact that, you know, 60% is the, you know, about as good as you can ever ask for in your, you know, the accuracy of your thesis. So, but, but what's so interesting about investing is that a lot of times you can not only can you be right, but. But not be right at the right time. But sometimes you can be. I think we even titled a show this this one time. Sometimes you can be so right that you end up becoming wrong. For example, you've been saying for, for several months or for several weeks that you thought the Fed should cut in July, that if they don't cut in July, it could cause problems. And the data has supported that and continued to support it even more and more and more. So as time goes on, the further we get from, say, June when you. I don't know. I keep saying June. I don't know exactly when you first said this, but let's just say it was June. The further we get from June, the more accurate you now appear to have been. Back in June, however, we still didn't get the rate cut right because you can't always anticipate. You may be able to anticipate the data, but you're not always able to anticipate what the market's going to do with that data. We didn't know that Trump was going to say what he said, which then caused Powell to kind of be in a box where he really couldn't cut. And you even said last week he needs to cut, but he shouldn't. Now he should cut, but he shouldn't cut because that was a new variable that you didn't see coming. Had you bet the farm on your thesis back in June that the market's going to see some softening of the data and that's going to force the, the Fed to cut in June, and then that's going to cause the powder you were talking about, the building, the bomb, and that's the spark that kind of lights it. And we could go to 6900 if that happens. You didn't bet the farm on that because you were humble enough to understand that this is what you think is probably this is what you think should happen. And the majority of the things that you thought were going to cause it to happen have happened. But there were a couple of variables that you didn't expect. And I want to give a real life example of this because this makes absolutely no sense to me. But 15 years of experience in this industry, it does make total sense to me in a way too. And you alluded to it earlier. The Fed meeting was Wednesday. The 10 year treasury closed at 437. The notes commentary from the meeting came out yesterday and I haven't read it. That's not my job. That's why I'll let you guys tell us what was said. But my understanding of it is that it suggested that there may not be a rate cut in September. It closed at 436. Today the jobs number comes out which shows some softening in the labor market. And nothing has changed from Fed policy announcements, conversations, anything like that. But that one data point has now dropped the tenure to 423 as we speak right now at 122 Eastern on August 1st. So the Fed did not lower rates. That was mostly expected. They included language that apparently suggests there may not be a cut in September. And yet now we are 14 basis points lower than we were before the Fed met to begin with. I think if you had, there are a lot of times, I don't know if this is accurate right here or not, but there's a lot of times in the market that if you told me what, if you told me what the facts were going to be a week before they became public, that still may not necessarily mean that I get the investment right or the market call. Right. Because I would think that you would assume that the 10 year would go up based on the last little bit, but it's gone down 14 basis points. And you, I think, I don't know if we were recording when you gave your explanation for why that is earlier. That might have been before we went live. But explain to the viewers and listeners how does that happen? How does the 10 year drop 14 basis points after what happened Wednesday and Thursday from the Fed? [00:20:28] Speaker C: So the Fed, so we actually had, we actually had the 10 year spike after the Fed, after the federal release, you know, had their, had their, their press conference because they were they, because they, you know, he did lean hawkish in that press conference. [00:20:43] Speaker A: Okay. [00:20:44] Speaker C: And so it kind of sat in that mid 430 range, mid to high 430s this week. And what we had today, what we had Today was the bond market standing up and screaming across the water at the Federal Reserve building saying, you smart college roommate again. [00:21:05] Speaker B: The smart roommate. [00:21:06] Speaker C: Yeah. So I think the dorks of the Federal Reserve, they want to get chicks and they've been hanging out with the equity people because they're not acting smart, right? And the bond guys, their bond friends are like, hey, you know, I haven't seen you any of the meetings lately. [00:21:21] Speaker B: So I love it when you impersonate the Fed right now. [00:21:24] Speaker C: We really need to cut these rates. Good Lord. Good Lord almighty. So that's, that's what's happening right now. And the, and you look at the two year. So 375. 372. [00:21:34] Speaker A: Okay? [00:21:35] Speaker C: It's. It's cr. I think it's down yield. The yield is down 5. 5% today. It's down what, 15 basis points? Okay, 12 basis points. It's down tremendously. That is the bond market screaming its head off at the Federal Reserve. You guys need to lower rates. We screamed at you in 2022, in 2021, and you didn't listen. And look what happened. Now we're screaming at you in 2025 and you're not listening. And here's what's going to happen. Oh, and look what's happening. Labor came out today, okay? Labor came out today and said, listen, job market is cracking. If you don't, if you don't take restriction out of this economy, you know, it's not going to just. The economy is not going to go to a nice, neutral, normal position and just stop there because you want it to. It's going to go right through there like a, like a knife through hot butter, right into contraction territory. If you don't start taking restriction out of this economy, they have the tools to do it. You know, this, this is. What you have is you have a round table of chin scratchers who refuse to, I don't know, take any sort of, take any initiative to say, hey, you know what? We're willing to get this wrong, but we think it's time to start going in this direction. And again, I don't, what I don't understand with this Federal Reserve is why they have to think. Why, why they think if they make a move and it is in the wrong direction that they can unwind it a meeting or two later, it's perfectly okay. No one can see the future. You know, that's, that's why the crystal ball industry is just still on its, on its hind, on its rear end, because no one, there's yet to be a crystal ball that works. Okay, that doesn't mean we can't infer from the data and we don't know we have enough data directionally, historically, we have enough sample sets to get a good idea of what's going to take place, that they can make a good decision. [00:23:30] Speaker A: So. [00:23:34] Speaker C: The fact that they're still not moving for best I can tell, is they don't want to look like the President's putting pressure on them, which again is a fair point. But now it's starting to really get into the economy. You know, here's the thing is, is we have a good market, we have good earnings. We have, we've had 63%. About 2/3 of the S and P is reported for Q2. Okay, we have 84% beat rate with a surprise of 8%. So 84 of the companies are beating by about 8%. That's incredible. Now that's. Well, it's incredible, but it's also not incredible. The reason it's not incredible is because over these last few quarters, a lot of the, there's a lot of been, there's been a lot of guidance down. [00:24:22] Speaker A: Right. [00:24:22] Speaker C: Earnings have been revised lower. So these thresholds to overcome are much, much lower than they were, you know, a few months ago, which is causing the, when they beat earnings now, they're beating by a much higher rate. But we still have good earnings. Okay, we have good earnings. We had good retail sales that came in last week. Medic came out, just blew the COVID off the ball with a 21 and a half percent surprise on, on their earnings. Microsoft came out with an 8 1/2% surprise on their earnings. Apple came out with a 9% surprise on their earnings. Amazon came out with a 25% surprise on their earnings. But Amazon's are, Amazon stock is down because they gave poor guidance because of the money they're putting into artificial intelligence. And the fact that they had that Trump remove the, what they call the de minimis tariff. So if it's below $800 box, there's no tariff on it. Well, Amazon gets a tremendous amount of shipments in small boxes from China. So now that's been removed. So they, they, they let that be known on their, on their call. So it's a bit of a problem. But again, we're still, you know, the, the market looks, the market looks really, really strong here. [00:25:29] Speaker A: Okay. [00:25:30] Speaker C: The banjo string was really, really tight. The market did not deserve to be at 6400. I thought it deserved to be between about 6006, 100 I'm not saying I hated the rally or I was, I was bullish or I was. Or I was bearish and certainly was not. And I enjoyed the rally. We participated in the rally and we wanted the rally to continue, but we, but also went too far too fast. So what do we have now? We have a distribution cycle. What does that mean? People are taking distributions from the money that they made from April 9th to today. [00:26:00] Speaker A: Okay. [00:26:01] Speaker C: As they should. You know, we have. The thing is, is what's going to happen now is we're going to start seeing a tightening of financial conditions. [00:26:09] Speaker A: Okay. [00:26:10] Speaker C: What I think has kept the Fed to sort of, so to kind of loop in the stock market and the Federal Reserve is as the stock market goes up, some. What we had is. Remember how we talked about how the bond market was in charge sometimes? Stock market's in charge right now, okay? The stock market's in charge. So as the stock market goes up. [00:26:31] Speaker B: Let me just make sure I'm, you're, I'm clarify what you're saying. Are you saying right now that the bond market is reacting to the stock market? [00:26:39] Speaker C: I'm saying that, yeah. So I'm saying is the, is the finance, the, the, the bond market. The, the bond market and financial conditions are, are reacting to the stock market, not the bond market. [00:26:53] Speaker A: Okay? [00:26:54] Speaker C: So the stock market kept going up, kept melting up all through July. And we had a relatively choppy 10 year. We didn't have it, you know, it didn't go down to, you know, below 4%. In fact, we had, in fact, I wrote on Wednesday, 7:30, I said market top, 7:30, a local top. [00:27:14] Speaker A: Okay. [00:27:15] Speaker C: At the time, the tenure was 441. [00:27:17] Speaker A: Okay? [00:27:18] Speaker C: So the equity markets simply don't care what, what, where, where interest rates are. What I'm getting at is we have easy financial conditions because of the stock market, not because of the bond market. [00:27:31] Speaker A: Okay? [00:27:32] Speaker C: We have good earnings and we have, you know, the economy is, is doing well right now. And, and we have a stock market going up. So what happens then is, is you start to see credit spreads get really, really tight, which causes an ease of financial conditions, right? So if people think the economy is good and there's going to be good earnings, corporate bonds yields are going to be lower, obviously tightening the credit spread between your Treasuries and your corporates, okay? That in and of itself is going to make easy financial conditions, okay? So with this market, as we get a market pullback, if that credit spread begins to widen, which it will, okay? That's going to start tightening those financial conditions when you're already getting fairly tight conditions on a policy from the policy side. So which could cause sort of a snowball effect, if that makes sense. [00:28:24] Speaker A: Right. [00:28:24] Speaker C: Which, so I would hope there's a hope, you know, I would hope that we start getting a lot of language out of Waller, Bowman, Goolsby, even Powell to say, you know what we, that these labor numbers are indicative of a, of a labor market that could get to, they could get, they could get away from us and we don't want it to happen. So we are looking at, you know, adjusting policy rate in the near future in these subsequent meetings. [00:28:54] Speaker B: Good stuff, man. Well, as always, the Intelligent Investment show is for entertainment, educational and amusement purposes only. We are not here to tell you what to do with your money. MATT dahl, ARPG Wealth Partners none of us, associated entities or anything else knows your financial circumstances, so we can't give you accurate advice, but we can share our commentary and try to educate you a little bit. If you would like to speak with Matt or anyone on his team, you may give him a call at 702-655-8300 or visit intelligent investment.com I'll read off the official newsletters here in the closing, as always. But you know, it's interesting at some point, I mean, it's an interesting question about and I know that the Fed should Trump have said what he said to kind of put them in that box to begin with. I get it. And yeah, you don't want to give the impression that they're losing their independence. But at the same time, how far do you let that, how far can they let it go before they finally have to just admit, you know what, I was wrong. You know what I mean? I mean, there comes a point in time where don't you have to ignore, acknowledge it. And I guess maybe, yes, that's a rhetorical question. But how long do you think it will go? Do you think it's going to take a new regime to change it or I know you said that you kind of gave out or laid out the rest of the year interest rate plans from what you see, but again, you were saying that for July, but the market was only given a 19% chance of that happening. So is the market reflecting the same schedule that you were saying, or is that just what you expect or what you think should happen? [00:30:32] Speaker C: I think the market will come around to it. [00:30:34] Speaker B: Okay. [00:30:35] Speaker C: I think the market will come around to it. But you know, I mean, for the Federal Reserve to, to, to hold rates where they're at to, to spite the president to, to reaffirm their independence when they actually should be doing it. One meeting. Okay, but any more than this is, you know, that's the teenage girl who moved out and lived in her car because her dad's not going to tell her what to do. [00:30:58] Speaker B: You know, that's what it's sounding like. I mean, it's, I, I do. We joke and we laugh and we have a great time on the show with your, with the analogies and the stories. I love the, the stock market was out day drinking last week. That was a great analogy. I love the college roommate. The college roommate analogy plays perfectly because, you know, my best friend in the entire world is my college roommate. And man, we were the almost the stereotypical combination of that. He made all A's through grad. He got his, he got his masters with a 4.0 GPA six months after I got my Bachelor's with a 2.6 and we graduated high school at the same time. You know what I mean? Like, we were the textbook definition of that. And he was, I was telling my son the other day about a day I was late for class and he came in and like literally just picked my mattress up and flipped me off the bed to wake me up. He was always like having to kick me in the butt to get me to class and all this kind of stuff. But you know, I love the stories and all that kind of stuff that we tell and it brings it to life a little bit. But, you know, the fact of the matter is at some point or another, like, you got to get your head out of your tail and acknowledge the reality of the situation. That I don't know if it's necessarily a good thing that right now the bond market's cheating off the slacker drunk roommate. Right? I don't think we want the equity market driving the bus at any point in time, right? [00:32:11] Speaker A: No, you don't. [00:32:13] Speaker C: And frankly, the bond market, as always, is likely getting this right. And they're, they are, they're saying, listen, hey, it's time, it's time to move. The guys who run the shorter duration bonds, the shorter duration credit, they're getting it right. [00:32:31] Speaker A: They're getting it right. [00:32:33] Speaker C: So, you know, that's why, that's why they, those guys do what they do. They love, they love low returns and you know, going to bed at 7 o' clock at night with lemon water. [00:32:44] Speaker B: Oh, man. Well, pleasure as always, Matt. Thank you for your time. Dude. Hey, if you're listening to the show, watch the show. We're on like 14 different podcast providers so you can go to. I'll put the website in the description below, but it's like Intelligent Investmentshow WealthPartners Media. Check out all the different providers we're on. If you're watching on YouTube, please like subscribe. Follow all that good stuff. Get Matt's wisdom and useless information sometimes, but he gets some wood on the ball occasionally to go back to my line there. So get him out to more people. We appreciate it. We'll disclosure here and see you next time. Matt, Pleasure as always brother. [00:33:20] Speaker C: See you. [00:33:21] Speaker B: See you man Discussions in the Intelligent. [00:33:23] Speaker D: Investment show are for educational purposes only. The information presented should not be considered specific investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular course of action. Always consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation before making investment or financial decisions. The views and opinions expressed are based on current economic and market conditions and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that any statements of future expectations will come to fruition. All investing involves risk. 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