Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: That's part of the normal agenda is to at least go over, you know, what's, what's going on with our hair every week. So my hair never changes.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Yours always changes.
[00:00:14] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:00:14] Speaker B: And I frankly, I don't like talking about other people's hair. I only like talking about my hair.
[00:00:20] Speaker A: Well, it's.
And if I had your hair, I would feel the same. Same way.
You know, some of us, it's just better not to talk about our hair, I think.
[00:00:31] Speaker B: But don't let that, don't let this fool you. I got, I got a bald spot on the back of my head that you could, you know, draw a smiley face on.
[00:00:39] Speaker A: Oh, we don't ever see that on the show. So you're holding out on us there.
[00:00:43] Speaker B: No. If there was a mirror back here, you could, you wouldn't be able to see anything because the glare off the back of my head would blind everyone.
In fact, you see the glare on the ARPG sign.
[00:00:54] Speaker A: Yep.
[00:00:54] Speaker B: That's not there. There's no lighting in here. That's all off the back of my head.
[00:00:59] Speaker A: Yeah, I could, I could see that. That's, that's wise of you, though, to keep that, keep that strategically in the back, make sure nobody ever sees it. So. Smart. Smart call. Well, welcome back to Intelligent Investment Live. I'm Garrett Lail with Matt Dahl of ARPG in sunny Las Vegas. I'm assuming it's Sunny today. It's 99 of the time. It's sunny in Vegas. Right.
[00:01:21] Speaker B: Sunny, hot and dry, you know, like living in a blow dryer.
[00:01:24] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Fun stuff. Well, welcome back to the, to the show. Excited as always to catch up with you. So had a Fed meeting this week. We've got some stuff going on in the Middle East.
We've got some, some weakening in the housing market where. Or we've got my hair we can, can touch on. We said last week that your hair never changes and mine is never the same.
My hair is like a snowflake. Right. You know, you've heard that there's no two snowflakes that are the exact same shape. That is my hair. There is never, there are never two days in a row or two days ever that I have the same hair. This one was particularly lovely. I had a hat on this morning and I didn't have time to shower and wet it out. So I've got a nice little, like, nest coming into the backside here. So, so we can talk about my hair. We can go markets, we can go war. We can go my hair. What do you think No, I like.
[00:02:18] Speaker B: The fact that your hair changes every show, you know, because it's like, I mean, I don't know if we're gonna get, you know, like Don King this morning or Telly Savalas. Of course, if you're older, if you're, if you're younger than, you know, 40, 55 years old, you probably don't know those people are.
[00:02:35] Speaker C: But.
[00:02:37] Speaker A: Well, not, not to say not to. I know who tepis of all this is certainly Don King. Don King was, I don't know if he was more famous for his immoral and unethical activities or his hair. Both were kind of equally, he was equally infamous for both. But when you think about it, in a way, and I hate to say this because compared to many others in the industry, you wouldn't say this, but compared to me, I think it's a fair comparison. You're sort of the bond market smart, nerdy roommate and I'm like the lazy college, you know, the equity market, the sort of the lazy party animal that doesn't have, you know, this sifting through pizza boxes to try to find their, their math book to study before an exam. And you're.
[00:03:20] Speaker B: If we were college roommates, absolutely. You would be the popular one with all the chicks and I would be the one studying my room with no friends.
[00:03:27] Speaker A: Yeah, absolutely.
That's only in comparison to me, I think, comparison to the rest of the industry. You're a really fun dude. Right, but compared to me, you're a bit more buttoned up.
[00:03:37] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, gosh, that's like being the cleanest dirty shirt at the bottom of the hamper, you know, like, God, like I'm the tallest midget. Great.
[00:03:46] Speaker A: Yeah, Good for you.
Oh man. Well, what's going on? Pretty, pretty quiet week in the markets as far as movement goes. It hasn't really.
We've not seen any big activity in the equity markets or the bond markets this week. A little bit of a dip in the 10 year treasury after the. Or during the Fed meeting on Tuesday, Wednesday, but not a, not a crazy week. It's sort of getting into that, that boring. The dog days of summer type thing where you get into the summer, it kind of volume drops a little bit, activity drops a little bit. So we haven't seen a ton of activity. But there has been a few, few things worth talking about.
[00:04:22] Speaker B: Yeah, the markets really lived, you know, I would say call it 40 points either side of 6,000 these last few weeks. I think we finished last week, you know, 5,000, 986 or something and here we are at 5,986, I believe I just looked at it. So, I mean, we're just kind of in this wait and see mode right now. I think a lot of it has to do with obviously geopolitical tensions.
You know, headline risk happens there. I think the, I think the Fed meeting and subsequent press conference caused a little bit of intraday consternation.
And I honestly, I was not happy with that press conference, not happy with the decision. I mean, I knew that's what the decision was going to be, but I thought the communication out of that meeting would have been a little more dovish and have a little more acknowledgment to what the data says and what, what consensus data for consensus data is showing us. You know, and it's, you know, I mean, you could take his press conference and wind it back 12 months. It's the same thing. You know, we are solely committed to our dual mandate and, and now of course it's tariffs. But again, tariffs haven't shown any impact on inflation yet. None whatsoever. And what's, what's happening now is, and you know, again, it's probably totally take a victory lap, but someday we're going to take a victory lap and wear a little, a shirt with a little number on the front and a little headband.
[00:05:48] Speaker C: Right?
[00:05:49] Speaker B: Yeah, I'm going to go running. This is my victory lap. Because what we've been kind of saying is that, well, a tariff is a price increase, it's not a demand increase. So a tariff in and of itself could cause a softening of demand, a softening of demand and curb inflation, causing the Fed to lower rates because they would need to start throwing accommodation to the economy, not further restriction.
So I never understood, I mean, of course I understood the very, very, very simple math. Well, tariffs cause prices to go up. When prices go up, that's inflation. And inflation means higher rates. Well, yeah, I mean, it's like you can't. But economics, you know, was not taught by Dr. Seuss with big pop up pictures and you know, size 37 font.
[00:06:34] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:06:35] Speaker B: It's complicated. There's a lot of moving parts and there's a lot of interactions, a lot of things that should work one way that actually work the other.
And I think tariffs is one of those cases.
So, you know, if we look at just, okay, if the tariffs are here or the tariffs are, I would think if nothing else, the tariffs should be priced in by now at a consumer level. Why shouldn't they be? Okay, because the retailers all you know, all goods and services across the board.
If they think it's coming, they're going to raise prices now because they know they're going to have to pay for future higher prices.
So we should see some level of inflation by through May, I would think.
[00:07:16] Speaker C: Right.
[00:07:17] Speaker B: Nothing. If you look at March, March, PCE03, April, PCE, 0.12. You know, we just had, we just had CP CPI come out at, you know,.12 for, for May.
So if you take PCE for May, which comes out a week from today, the consensus is 0.14.
So if you take March, April and May's consensus number and you combine them together, PC, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, we have a 1.3% annualized PCE from those three months. Core core, not headline core.
Okay, so if we have core PCE probably coming in 1.3 to 1.4 to 1.5.
We have the summary of economic projections came out at this meeting. Again, very confusing.
Change in real GDP for 2025 shows a 1.4% for this year. The March projection was 1.7. Okay, 2026, 1.6 up from or down from 1.8, the March projection and then 1.8, what they call the longer run GDP rate, 1.8. Okay, so let's take them at their word. So we're gonna have one and a half percent this year, 1.6 or 1.7% next year, and a longer run GDP growth of less than 2%.
How can they, how can they come up to this core PCE inflation number for end of this year at 3.1 and 2.4 for next year. We're running at a current 3, 3 month annualized of 1.2.
Okay, so there's a lot of disconnect that I'm seeing between the hard data that's actually coming out and the soft data. And the Fed's opinion is soft data in and of itself because it's the Fed.
Okay, so I don't think the Fed is, I think, I'm not sure why the Fed isn't wanting to at some point not throw accommodation the economy. No one's saying that. But at some level neutralize a potential problem. We have initial jobless claims at 245,000 this week. Is it, is it bad? No, when it gets up to, we, you know, we like it around 180 to 210,000. That's a good number. It's been ticking up. And if you look at the, if you look at the chart of the of initial claims. It's choppy, but it's directionally up.
[00:09:45] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:09:46] Speaker B: Not that, not that unemployment is all that bad. It's a 4.4, 4.5.
[00:09:50] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:09:51] Speaker B: It's gonna, it's a 4.2. They believe we're going to finish this year at 4.5, but that's up 3/10 from where it is now.
So we've got, we've got pretty soft GDP numbers. We've got, from what we can see, the last, what we can see is pretty soft inflation numbers. We have initial claims ratcheting up, kind of ticking up here and there.
[00:10:14] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:10:15] Speaker B: We have the Fed acknowledging that we're going to be 3, 10 higher in unemployment by the end of this year.
We have them acknowledging that we're not going to have runaway economic growth in 2026 or 20 or 2027 or their longer run estimates. So why are we throwing so much restriction to this economy?
That's what I'm trying to square that and I simply can't because I've always been an advocate of this Fed. I've always been an advocate, you know that I've always been an advocate of Jay Powell. I think he does a tremendous job of communicating and, and I like. And I think he did just. They did a phenomenal job of fixing the problem that they created.
[00:10:52] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:10:53] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:10:54] Speaker B: Now they're going to do it again.
If they don't start cutting soon, what's going to happen is they're going to remove all optionality.
Same thing that happened in 2022. They waited too long and they weren't able to kind of ease it in. They weren't able to kind of ease rates up and, and cool it, cool it down without it boiling over.
[00:11:15] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:11:16] Speaker B: And if they wait too long and we start to see serious cracks in the labor market, we start to see the housing, the housing market fully employed. We're starting to get those numbers now. Okay, then they're going to remove optionality. They're not going to have the ability to say, hey, you know what, I don't, we're not sure if we should wait and hold. Now they're going to start cutting rates by 50 basis points. 50 base points. 50 base points so we don't go into a recession.
[00:11:38] Speaker C: Right.
[00:11:39] Speaker B: And that's why I'm not understanding, honestly that maybe they didn't learn their lessons from 2021 and 2022. Maybe they didn't because it's time. We have a four and a half percent upper bound federal policy rate. We have $698 billion worth of homes for sale right now in the United States, up 21% from a year ago. We have a pretty strong labor market, a fairly good economy.
But we see softening, we see these softening patches coming through.
You fix the roof when the sun is shining. The sun is shining, but the clouds are gathering. Okay, it's time to start. Hey, let's cool this thing off a little bit so this thing doesn't become a tire fire.
[00:12:24] Speaker A: You.
We've.
Tell me if I'm saying this wrong. I think I'm hearing this, but I might be, I might be a little bit off base.
You talked on the last show that you've got this, this bomb kind of being built.
It needs a spark or a catalyst to explode to get the, you know, to see the market maybe get up to the 6800 level that we've kind of talked about on a couple of shows. It almost sounds, if I'm reading, if I'm understanding you correctly, and sometimes with this stuff I do get confused, so I'll admit that. But it sounds to me that your catalyst is you. You. And you are seeing some weakening economic data, not, not recessionary data or saying that we're going into a recession, but you are seeing a cooling off of the economy. And that cooling off should trigger the Fed to act and lower interest rates. That's where you're getting your hypothesis or your, your thesis that we're going to see, you know, two to three rate cuts this year, and that being the.
So it's the, the two to three rate cuts is really the fuel that's lighting the bomb, but the spark that's lighting the fuse is the economic data starting to slow down. So am I understanding correctly that you kind of feel like the data is weakening, but the Fed may not actually act? And if so, that would be a big mistake.
[00:13:42] Speaker B: Right? So I think the sparks license all.
[00:13:45] Speaker A: That back, I guess, is what I'm saying.
[00:13:47] Speaker B: So I think the spark that lights the fuse, that lights the bomb is the inflation, the sustainable level of low, the sustainable low level of inflation, which would cause the, the Fed to cut rates in a sustainable, in a sustainable manner, taking it to a neutral position.
That's it. That's, that's the spark that lights the bomb.
[00:14:08] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:14:09] Speaker B: That being said, this is always, this is, it's always moving in one direction or the next. If they wait too long, then that spark's going to go out and they're going to have to cut rates for an entirely different set of reasons. And the market will explode on the upside, but it will do it from a much, much lower level because it will have corrected a tremendous amount because we're going to have to start pricing in a recession.
[00:14:32] Speaker A: Okay, so get a 25, get a 20% increase on the market that was down 25%. You just basically wrap it, right?
Yeah, I might say this number backwards.
[00:14:41] Speaker B: But yeah, right, But I mean you look at housing starts, we're down to 1.26 million annualized. It fell 9.8% in May. It's the lowest level of new home construction Since May of 2020, the dead depths of the pandemic. We're down, it's down almost 5% from May of last year. And new housing starts, we have more people wanting to buy homes and we have fewer housing. Building permits are down 2% from April as well. You know, so if you look at the fed, they're projecting two rate cuts.
[00:15:10] Speaker C: Okay. Look at the.
[00:15:13] Speaker B: Two year treasury, it's at 3.9. It's projecting in almost three.
[00:15:17] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:15:18] Speaker B: So you know, we have, we, we just have a lot of, there's a lot of reasons for the Fed to cut.
There's no reasons for the Fed to, for the Fed to raise rates.
[00:15:29] Speaker C: Right?
[00:15:30] Speaker B: And if you look, if you look at just that simple equation, there's many reasons for the Fed to cut. Now I can see, okay, we want to hold, we want, there's two interest rates, but there is literally zero reason for the Fed to raise rates. So that simple scale says let's just start cutting. They don't have to cut 75 basis points, but if they start cutting in, you know, 25 basis points at a time and just bring it down to some near, something near a neutral level and if you, you believe them at their word, the average of the next four years of GDP is 1.5%.
[00:16:00] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:16:01] Speaker B: The average, the, the end of 20, the end of 2026, PCE is 2.4, which I think is wrong going to be, that's a high number. So if you take those two numbers, you combine them, you have 2%, 2% between the GDP growth and the projected PCE, that number is 2%.
So why wouldn't you at least bring it within 100 basis points of that number at 3% on an upper bound rate over the next six to eight meetings? I don't think there's anything wrong with that. That's not going to cause inflation to run amok. That's not going to cause things to go berserk. What it will do is it could potentially stop the bleeding that's happening in the housing market right now.
That could potentially cause sort of a cascading effect. This is.
I'll share a story that's very, very, very anecdotal, don't get me wrong. So this is. This is the most anecdotal you'll. You'll think you'll hear in a long, long time. But a very, very close friend of mine is a mortgage guy here in Las Vegas. Been doing it for 20 years.
Tremendously successful, Many, many, many, many clients.
In the, in the peak times, you know, he was doing 35, 40 loans a month, a normal month for pre pandemic and all those other things. You know, it was 10, 12, 13 loans a month. That was the normal time. And even through 2024, 2023, and when things got bad into 2024 and into 2025, he was still, you know, doing four or five loans a month, three loans a month. He has zero loans right now and nothing in the pipeline. And we're talking about someone who has a tremendous client list who does a tremendously good job. And what, what happens that you have somebody and you have this group of people that have historically made good money, right? And now they're. They're starting to consolidate what they're doing. They're start. They're. They're going to start to spend less and more because there's nothing. They're not doing business now. And that could cause a cascading effect to.
Okay, well, when you go to Lowe's, people, they're gonna be buying less. When they go to Target, they're gonna be spending less money. There's gonna be less people out to dinner.
[00:18:01] Speaker C: Right?
[00:18:02] Speaker B: All of those things will start to coalesce together. So there's. So what would stop that is not, again, not throwing accommodation, but reducing restriction.
[00:18:14] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Well, and housing is such a.
I mean, you could.
Depending on the week and what we wanted our headline to be, we could make a case for a lot of different data points as being the most important economic indicator out there. But housing is a pretty doggone important one, you know, because as you touched on a couple of shows ago, I mean, that's where a lot of. For. I don't know what the exact number is, but for a very, very large percentage of Americans, the equity in their home is the number one asset that they have. I've got a free minor now who's. Who would be very interested in.
He's in a position where he may need to put his house on the market. And hey, he's made a ton of money on his house. Because for years and years and years, basically for from the beginning of time until 2008, everyone said real estate always goes up. It never goes down. Real estate just goes up, up, up, up, up, up, up. Then 2008 happened and we said, oh, wait, it goes down sometimes. And then, man, we have a short memory. And as humans, I guess, because in the last, I don't know, five, 10 years, it's like we've completely forgotten the housing go down. It's insane. What. I don't. I'm a little bit too young.
I don't get to say that very often. I'm not too young for anything, but I'm a little bit too young to really remember how much housing appreciated pre 2008. But, I mean, it's insane what it's done in the last, you know, five, 10 years.
And if you were to see.
I mean, there's been a lot of markets. I know it's kind of localized, but there's a lot of markets where you've seen a 50, 60, 70% increase in housing prices over that, that time period. If something happens that wipes that out. And because it's a leveraged asset, it doesn't take but a 20% drop in housing prices to wipe out some people's entire equity in it. That's going to have a huge impact on. On other parts of the market. So, hey, that's the, that's the fear factor. Right? But we are always objectively optimistic, right? This is the Objectively Optimistic Intelligent Investment show, brought to you by arpg. We have the longest title ever. We just keep adding to it, but there's no reason to let that happen necessarily.
[00:20:18] Speaker C: Right?
[00:20:18] Speaker B: Right.
So to be objectively optimistic, I think something happened today.
[00:20:25] Speaker A: Today.
[00:20:25] Speaker B: I think the Fed decided, you know what? We're gonna. If we don't do something, we're gonna get this one wrong. And again, if they get this wrong, it could be. I mean, this could be a big, gnarly, spicy meatball that they have to try to unwind.
[00:20:39] Speaker C: And.
[00:20:40] Speaker B: And I'm telling you, the people will be doing nothing but throwing rotten vegetables at them if they get this one wrong and they're about to. Okay, so what the Fed, what this Fed is known for is communicating to the public a little surreptitiously, okay?
And they had the Fed meeting.
He said.
Jay Powell said what he said. I think he leaned a little hawkish. He certainly was a lot more hawkish than I thought. He should have been, I thought he should have been. Okay, hold neutral but be dovish. Acknowledge all of the softened the patches of softness were saying and the fact that inflation has stayed relatively cool. We haven't really seen anything as far as the tariffs impacting inflation. None of that.
Even though he was asked about that by both the Associated Press and, and see, and the CBS people at the press conference, they said, well, you know, basically, you know, they said tariffs appear to be a will soften demand which could cause inflation to not take.
So what they did, what happened today, what happened this morning is this reminds me a lot of the Nick Timoros leak in very late May, early June of 2022 that Jay Powell said in May of 2022, early early mid May of 2022, no, this Fed is not going to be raising rates by 75 basis points. We're not doing it. We don't want to shock markets. I don't know who's. And then I think a Bostic got on there and said, listen, I don't know who's going to vote. I don't know which Fed member is going to vote for a 75 basis point hike in rates at a single meeting. But it's not this Fed. And then not two weeks later, Nick Timoros came out with an article and he's sort of the Fed whisperer. We kind of know that he's the one that talks to the Fed and they share information with him that you know the Fed. What happens if The Fed did a 75 basis point increase at the neck at the very next meeting which was not two weeks away?
[00:22:29] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:22:31] Speaker B: And lo and behold, they did 75 basis point. They did, they did a triple hike in that, that first June meeting in June of 2022.
So what happened this morning?
The number three man at the Fed, you have the chairman, which is pal. Then you have the vice, you have the vice chair and then you have the New York Fed president.
Okay, those are the only three permanent voting members. The other members, the other voting members, they rotate in and out, you know, or Chicago, Cleveland, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Dallas, Richmond. They all kind of, they, they like Goolsby is Goolsby, Chicago. So he, he's, he's now a voting member this year. He was not last year. He was the year before. Okay, so they kind of rotate. But there are three members that are permanent. They always vote every year. They never rotate out. And that's the chairman, the vice chair and the, the New York Fed president.
The New York Fed president is Christopher Waller.
Waller Told CNBC that the Fed should look through one time price increases from tariffs and supports a rate cut for July.
That's from the New York Fed president this morning.
So I think that is, I think that's the Fed acknowledging and communicating in their way that, okay, we know we need to get on this train here pretty quick. Okay, so shame on me. I haven't actually gone to. So I'll do that right now. As far as what it looked like, because we knew that last week the chances of a July, of a July rate cut were about 20%, 21%.
[00:24:20] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:24:21] Speaker B: So I'm not check. And we thought it went down, I think to 12 after the Fed meeting.
[00:24:26] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:24:28] Speaker B: So now it's at, well, 14 and a half percent. So it hasn't moved.
So it's a 14 and a half.
[00:24:40] Speaker A: That's the beauty of a live show. Sometimes things don't go exactly the way you plan.
[00:24:43] Speaker B: That's okay though, but. And that's all right. So the market's not pricing in a Fed.
[00:24:48] Speaker C: A Fed cut.
[00:24:49] Speaker B: Yeah, but if Waller says there's supposed to be one and thinks there should be one and he. People will listen to. Because he's not a historically dovish guy. He's not a historically dovish guy. He's always been like, he's, you know, but when he changes, he changes and he changes and he doesn't move.
[00:25:06] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:07] Speaker B: So I think he holds a lot of weight and sway with the committee and I think people will listen to what he has to say. And we might, we might get, I think we might get a July cut. I think it's unlikely. I hope they do. I think they should.
I think we need, I think we need four rate cuts this year.
[00:25:23] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:23] Speaker B: I think at best we'll get three. At best we'll get, you know, July, September and you know, take your pick. November or December. That's best case scenario. Worst case scenario is, you know, they cut September and cut in December.
[00:25:37] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:37] Speaker B: Or they just cut in September or whatever. But you know, this is all, again, this is all hard data dependent. If of course, the job market pops up and you know, all of a sudden, you know, June CPI data comes in at 0.6 or something like that, or, you know, jolts spike out of nowhere, then. Okay. I could see them holding off on it. But according to the data that we have now and the direction of the data we have now, that has been this way for the better part of, you know, three or four months directionally, it's, it's time to start Slowly taking your foot off the brake pedal.
[00:26:13] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:26:16] Speaker B: Mentioned the Middle east thing.
[00:26:18] Speaker A: Well, I was going to say, man, you teamed me up there. We have such a great chemistry, you and I swear I was going to say we asked you before the show, do we want to talk about the Middle East? A little bit of tension there.
You know, I'm pretty positive that wars and rumors of wars in the Middle east is not a new market phenomenon, that we don't know how to react or how to handle it. But is this one that is worth worrying about or is this just headline headline risk?
[00:26:46] Speaker B: And I mean this with all due respect, you know, because, because war is a terrible thing and the, the, the, the, the human cost of war is awful.
And my heart goes out to all those people on both sides, but I hope, I hope it ends soon. That being said, they are for me an opportunity because what you have when you have headline risk like a war, there again, it's geopolitics, Paul. We know politics are not permanent, okay? Geopolitics are not permanent. So what, what this, what this head, what these headlines do is they cause that emotional part of the market to really act and overact, right? And there's a lot of selling that happens and it has nothing to do with any fundamental metrics of the market, doesn't have anything to do with earnings, doesn't have to do with interest rates, doesn't have to do with monetary policy, doesn't have to do with regulatory environment. It is not, it is not structural to the markets. It's nothing more than headline risk. How does Israel, you know, bombing Iran and Iran, bombing Israel affect the earnings on the S P500?
Basically, it causes oil to go up a little bit for a very short period of time. So it has very little impact. Energy is a very small part of the S&P 500. And we know again, it's not a permanent thing.
So what happens is, is you get these. And this is where I had to apologize in the front end of. This is where you have soulless monsters like myself buying the tears of the week who like to sell because things are scary, because they don't understand.
Warren Buffett said, said it better than anyone.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
[00:28:25] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:28:26] Speaker B: So I look at something like that, like, well, it's not going to affect earnings. In fact, what it could do is it could cause people to run a safety by the treasury markets, lower interest rates, which is good for the markets in the long term. And then what do we have? I bought the Market at a, at a much lower price with, with, with lower interest rates. So that's what I like to do. So, you know, there's nothing, people that talk about headline risk as being as a big part of the market structurally and for, for longer periods of time typically don't. They're not general market.
I would call market experts.
[00:29:01] Speaker C: Right.
[00:29:01] Speaker B: They're more market tourists.
[00:29:06] Speaker A: I love that. I like that line.
Last thing. I guess we, I've brought this up so many times. We aren't quite, I don't think, correct me if I'm wrong, we're not quite to a point where good news is bad news, bad news is good news. Are we.
[00:29:26] Speaker B: No, I think we're past it now. I think bad news is bad news. Okay, if we get, if we, I mean, if, if inflation comes in low, that's good news. That's good for the market. Okay, Good news is good news, bad news better. If we get, if we get soft labor numbers, whereas last year, if we got soft labor numbers, that was good for the bond market, that was good for the equity markets.
We get, if we get a really bad jobs number here in a few weeks.
[00:29:53] Speaker C: Right.
[00:29:54] Speaker B: The market's not going to like that. The bond market I think will like that. The equity market will not like that. Okay, I mean, let's say we get, I don't know what consensus is right now for June, but let's say, you know, again, we like to be at 170, 580, 000amonth. That's what, that's a good healthy job. Came in at139,000 this month. The consensus is only 130. But the last two months, May and April, April and May, I'm sorry, March and April were revised down collectively 95, 000. So I expect, I expect May to be revised down. So if May is revised down on an average of, call it 20,000, so it comes in at you know, 120, 000, it's revised down from basically 140 to 120. And then we have consensus at 120. Comes in at a hundred thousand or 90,000 or something like that. The, the market is not going to like that. The market will pull back and I think it'll pull back 5%. Okay, so that's again, that's where the market is sort of telling, this is telling the Fed that it's time. It's time we, we need the, this economy has been, has been restricted for, for quite a while now and they had to do it because Inflation was absolutely going berserk, although it had a lot to do with, you know, too much money that was given away and supply chains being shut down for quite some period of time, which was a huge part of inflation.
But those are all real. That's gone.
[00:31:15] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:31:16] Speaker B: We have savings. We have savings rates and savings accounts back to pre pandemic levels. Things look fine. We're not seeing. We're not saying we don't have 10 million jobs open. We don't have 12 million jobs open. We have one job available for every available worker.
[00:31:29] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:31:29] Speaker B: That's. We are in a very normal spot. We have a 4.2, 4.3% unemployment rate. It's not. That's still very, very good. We want to keep it there. Why do we need to take it to 5%?
[00:31:39] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:31:40] Speaker B: But, yeah, it's not 3.4, but it's 4.2, 4.3, 4.4. And that's a nice place to keep it. So let's keep it there. You know, how do you keep your car at the same speed? You don't keep it forward or keep your foot on the brake pedal the entire time. You back off and you, you hold it. And that's what they need to do. They need what?
[00:31:57] Speaker C: They're, they're, they're.
[00:31:58] Speaker B: They're just taking this thing. They're taking it too far. You know, I. I think they need to be more proactive.
[00:32:06] Speaker A: Well, if we could just get them watching the Intelligent Investment show live.
[00:32:10] Speaker B: Yeah, problem solved. They don't like our jokes.
[00:32:14] Speaker A: They don't. Well, I don't think they like it when we talk about it. People don't like it when you talk about them sometimes, unless they endorse it ahead of time. So in closing. Hey, that's a. I'll team myself up for some self promotion there. If you're watching the video or you're listening to the podcast or watch on YouTube, like subscribe to the channel, share it, do all this stuff. Maybe if we do enough of that stuff, it'll get to the Fed. The Fed will watch the Intelligent Investment show, and they'll start doing what Matt says they should do.
That would. That would be a perfect world for all of us. In the meantime, for those of you out there, we are here for your entertainment and education purposes only. Me and Matt or. I'm sorry, that's terrible. That's. That you made fun of the Southern accent a minute ago right there. That's some Southern talking right there. Me and Matt. It's Matt and I. Neither Matt nor I are familiar enough with your financial situation or familiar at all your financial situation to be able to give you advice on your money. So do not listen to what we say and go act on it. However, if you would like to talk to Matt and his team, they would be happy to chat with you and and answer your questions, get to know your financial situation and help you. They can be reached at 702-655-8300 or@intelligent investment.com if you're in the Las Vegas area, I imagine you can probably find Matt at your local supercuts probably at least once.
Steam never changing state that it's in so all kinds of ways to find Matt if you're looking for advice.
[00:33:34] Speaker B: Hey it's a. It's a. It's a super it's a super great haircut at a fair and reasonable price.
[00:33:41] Speaker A: That will be our first. By the way, we are also open for show sponsorship super cuts. If you're out there and you're listening, we will take my that was not a paid endorsement, but it could be if you call us. So you can call me anytime as well. 919-561-2436 Supercuts and we'll get you on the show.
Matt. Always a pleasure brother. Hope you have a great weekend and we'll see you next week same same time, same place. Look forward to it as always, man.
[00:34:08] Speaker D: As always, the Intelligent Investment show is for your entertainment, education and general amusement purposes only. It is not intended to be financial advice or investment advice of any kind of Neither Matt nor I or any of our companies or associated entities know anything about your financial circumstances, so it would be unwise for us to tell.
[00:34:27] Speaker A: You what to do with your money. We encourage you to seek a professional if you do have questions about your.
[00:34:31] Speaker D: Portfolio or your financial plans.
[00:34:33] Speaker A: If you would like to reach Matt.
[00:34:35] Speaker D: And his team, you may do so by giving him a call at 702-655-8300 or visiting intelligentinvestment.com we thank you for joining us. See you next time.
Discussions in the Intelligent Investment show are for educational purposes only. The information presented should not be considered specific investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular course of action. Always consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation before making investment or financial decisions. The views and opinions expressed are based on current economic and market conditions and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that any statements of future expectations will come come to fruition. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal securities offered through United Planners Financial Services member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services offered through American Retirement Planning Group. ARPG and United Planners are independent companies. Garrett Lille and Wealth Partners are not affiliated with ARPG or United Planners. Any endorsement that I may have given during this recording it is important to note that I am not a client of arpg. The views expressed should not be considered representative in any way of my ask present or future experience with Matt or arpg. No incentives have been provided to me in connection with any endorsements I may have given on the Intelligent Investment Show. Investing involves risks and there is no guarantee of any future results, performance or.
