Episode Transcript
[00:00:04] Speaker A: Welcome to the Intelligent Investment show live. I am Garrett Litle, here with the always intelligent and clean looking Matt Dahl. And you know, every time we do this, I never really explain the show or what we do here. So Matt is the founder of ARPG Intelligent Investment out in Las Vegas. I'm Garrett Lille. I'm a certified financial planner. I'm not a practicing financial advisor anymore, so I still have my, my CFP designation and I love to talk the markets, but I'm a retired player coach, I suppose you'd say now. So I'm, I'm just here to kind of, kind of guide the conversation. I have the Wealth Partners Network. We put out content like this. So if you're stumbling across this and wondering who the heck we are, that's our background. Matt, good to see you as, as always. I really probably just need to record an intro and that way we don't have to do it every single time. You know, you think 35 shows into it, we would have simple things like that nailed down. But you know, learn as you go. Right, brother.
[00:01:02] Speaker B: We never stop growing, we never stop getting better, we never stop challenging ourselves.
[00:01:06] Speaker A: That's right.
[00:01:07] Speaker B: You know what you are A cfp. I forgot about that. That's.
[00:01:10] Speaker A: That's right.
[00:01:11] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:01:11] Speaker B: That's an impressive thing. And honestly, that's what makes you so good at this is like the advisors that work here for me, they're great at basically being the interpreter of things that I say.
[00:01:22] Speaker A: Yeah, that's it.
[00:01:25] Speaker B: And help people understand and articulate very complex subject matters and events to clients and kind of bridge that gap. And they're really good for people. It's really great for clients or people, potential clients or just the general public trying to understand what marble mouth dorks like me have to say.
[00:01:48] Speaker A: Well, there's a, there's a very, it's a beautiful art to try to figure out how to take all of that just wealth of knowledge that you have in that brain and then figure out how to somehow send that through a filter to make it make sense to the everyday investor. Right. Because one of the things investing is there's a lot of numbers, a lot of terms, a lot of acronyms, a lot of different things like that that get thrown around. And the guys on TV really, really love to use words that nobody else understands. Number one, it makes them look smarter and number two, it helps the public not necessarily even be able to tell if they're right or wrong or know what they're talking about because you don't speak the language anyway. Right. So what we attempt to do on this show is to take all of that, you know, the stuff that's floating around out there, and break it down into terms that make sense and apply to everyday people. Because at the end of the day, investing is not necessarily complicated. It's just. There's a lot of moving parts, but it's not necessarily. It doesn't have to be complicated. So anyway, and we always do that with the token slogan that we've adopted, I believe with objective optimism. We are the objective, optimistic crowd of the group.
So, Matt, this is our last. We're going to be on vacation next week. So you got two weeks worth of knowledge to share in about 30 minutes here. So I hope you're on your game.
You're looking fantastic. I did try to up my hair game a little bit this week. Mine was. I was struggling last week, man, it really was a rough one. But I showered, I shaved, I did the whole, whole nine yards this morning to try to look especially nice for you and your audience.
[00:03:27] Speaker C: You look.
[00:03:28] Speaker B: You're slick as a ball bearing this morning.
[00:03:30] Speaker C: You look good.
[00:03:31] Speaker B: Nice and hairless. You're going to glide right into that weekend.
[00:03:35] Speaker A: That's right. That's exactly right.
[00:03:37] Speaker C: No nothing.
[00:03:38] Speaker B: Just no restrictions.
[00:03:40] Speaker A: Absolutely.
[00:03:42] Speaker B: What's the right word? What are we looking for?
The opposite. Aerodynamic.
Well, no wind resistance.
[00:03:55] Speaker A: No wind resistance. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what, it's about 180 degrees here in North Carolina. I don't think there is any wind to resist anything. It's. But it is very. The air is very heavy. So, you know, when you've got a lot of humidity, you do need some aerodynamics just to. You're getting air resistance just standing still down here right now.
[00:04:14] Speaker B: Well, then you stay away from Las Vegas. On the way to work. I saw Satan out on the street corner with a fan.
[00:04:24] Speaker A: Oh, wow.
[00:04:25] Speaker B: He was actually on fire. Looking for like. Oh, it's too. This place is too hot.
[00:04:30] Speaker A: This is a great. We're eventually going to get around to some investment stuff, I think here, but really good competition I think we could have right now. I know you've got me on temperature. There's probably no doubt that you've got me on raw temperature. But I think North Carolina might be able to at least be in your ballpark if we go heat index to heat index, because you don't have any humidity out there. Everybody always says it's a dry heat knob, so 120 is 120. I don't care how dry it is. But what's the heat index there?
[00:04:58] Speaker B: I don't. It's. Our heat index is usually really close to our temperature because we don't have a lot of humidity. I'm not sure about that heat index because, you know, when it's humid out, yeah, it feels heavier, but it also makes you sweat and that kind of cools you down a little bit here.
It's. It's just. It sucks the moisture out of you.
Like, you know, you. Like you're a sponge that was left on the. On hot concrete. There's just. There's just nothing. It's just dry. It's just dry on, dry and dry. That being said, I want to say last August, early September, we were in Indianapolis actually racing, and there was a day. It was 97, 98. 97, 98 degrees. It was like 90, 94 humidity.
You know, I don't know. I don't know that I wanted to die, but I don't know that I really wanted to live.
So it was pretty gnarly. And that's because I'm not used to that humidity. I will say, though, I came back from that trip and my skin and hair looked fantastic for about three days. And then I reverted back to my wrinkly raisin version of myself with all the moisture left my body.
[00:06:02] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. It's a fine line. It's. It's a balancing act. You can. You can look good and feel bad or look bad and feel good, I guess. But. And just to clarify, it wasn't the 500 in Indianapolis you were in? I watched that. I did not see you.
[00:06:16] Speaker B: No, no, no. This was, this was a last. Like Labor Day. Last Labor Day. We do the NHRA US Nationals. Yeah, but I mean, you know, it looked great. I was. I was polished like Anna Nicole Smith at her wedding to that old dude. But three, four years later, I look like Beetlejuice.
[00:06:32] Speaker A: Okay, we've slipped too far down the rabbit hole at this point. I think maybe we need to talk some investments now.
[00:06:38] Speaker B: We started.
[00:06:41] Speaker A: So what's going on in the market? So it's funny, man, since I am essentially retired, for lack of a better word, financial advisor, I don't have to keep up with the markets day in and day out. I'll be honest with you. I usually check the market once a week, about 12:30 Eastern on Fridays because we do the show at 1:00 clock and I would like to know what's going on. But when we talked earlier, you said the Fed has to cut now. They have to cut now, now, now. And I'M thinking, oh man, must been a rough week in the market. But now the market's fine. The S and P is, I'm eyeballing the chart here. It looks like we're at all time high on the S and P right now. Okay, so reconcile that for me. We are at an all time high and Matt is freaking out that the Fed has got to cut now, now, now, now. And that's going to be the title of the show. The Fed has to cut now. And the now you should know is in all caps bold, because you were very animated. They need to cut now. So what's going on?
[00:07:31] Speaker B: Right, so we're at all time highs because it looks like the, the, we've had some big stress tests the markets had to go through that is tariffs, a 12 day potential larger scale war, you know, you name it, we've gone through all of those things. And now it looks like what catalyst today was, I think was two things. I think it was more that the China trade deal looks like it's, the framework is sort of been put into concrete and they're, they're able to build on it. And what, that's, what that's conveying to the markets is there's, there is an understanding now between the United States and China and they have something they can work with, they can talk, they're, they're less at odds than they were two, three months ago.
[00:08:16] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:08:17] Speaker B: The other thing is, is PCE came in this morning, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. So estimates were 4.1 month over month, 2.6 year over year. It came in, the headline said point 2 and 2.7. The actual real number was 0.18. Okay, so let's dive into that right now. So what, what does that mean? That means the actual prices of Purchase products rose 0.18 month over month. Okay, well what actually what also took place is overall spending for, for April.
Okay, I'm sorry, for May.
[00:08:55] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:08:56] Speaker B: Law was down by 0.1, was down by 0.1%.
So we're seeing, we're seeing spending actually down prices slightly up. What does that tell you?
That tells you that prices are going to follow that spending supply, demand. It just is what it is. We can't have continued higher prices with lower spending because that lower, the lower spending is demand with a capital D. Right? That's your demand number. So we're not, we're seeing, we're starting to see demand starting to wane a little bit, you know, and the PCE sort of held in but they're, but they're purchasing less.
And, and to sort of make matters worse is personal income month over month.
So consensus estimate. And if the Fed doesn't see this as a bright, shining, glaring 4th of July lady finger that's blowing up in their face to start cutting rates, and I don't know what it was, then I don't know what there is. So consensus estimates for personal income month over month was a gain of 0.3%.
[00:10:00] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:10:01] Speaker B: Which means personal in person, which means personal income would grow about three and a half to 4% year over year.
[00:10:08] Speaker C: Right.
[00:10:09] Speaker B: It came in at minus 0.4, a seven tenths of a percent swing. That is, that's not a miss. That's like the guy got drunk in the bar the night before and slept in his car in the parking lot, never showed up to the game. That's how bad of a miss that was.
[00:10:24] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:10:25] Speaker B: And that is, and again that's, now you have the precursors of the precursor. The precursor to, to, to, to consumer spending, which was down 0.1 is being the income available to do make the purchase. Now what they're purchasing, again, that was up 0.18, but the spending was down 0.1 and the income that led to the spending was down 0.4.
So this, this little snowball is starting to, is starting to roll a little bit.
[00:10:54] Speaker C: Right.
[00:10:55] Speaker B: The other thing is, and we talked about this last time was jobs.
Jobs came in at 139,000 for the month of May.
[00:11:02] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:11:04] Speaker B: Consensus estimate was 130,000. That's not great, 139,000, although it beat the estimate, is still not great. What we have now is if you look at, if you look at the three months, the, what they call the three month average of new job creation, where right now it's 144,000, okay. For March, April and May, that's 144,000 average jobs created on a three month average a year ago through May.
The three month average through May of 2024 was 249,000. Again, that might be a bit high, but we've seen a, we've seen, you know, a 40% reduction in that three month average.
Okay, 144,000. That's a little low. But look at that direction, look at the speed of that move. Things don't ever just go to where they're supposed to go and stop because that's where we want it to be. They continue down those roads.
[00:11:57] Speaker C: Right.
[00:11:58] Speaker B: Is again, the Fed is not, the Fed is not flipping a speedboat around in the middle of a river here, the Fed is turning an oil tanker, right? Yeah, okay, maybe 10 oil tankers. It's that big of a job. So what we're seeing material cooling in the labor markets. We're seeing a huge, huge, huge miss in personal income.
We're seeing a huge miss in actual spending and a decrease in income in spending. And we're starting to see more cracks in the housing markets.
And Bill Pulte was on, actually, was on this morning and he's actually asking for Jay Powell to resign. I think that's obviously overboard and I understand where that's coming from. And I think Jay Powell for the most part deserves a lot of credit for keeping us from going into recession when rates, when inflation skyrocketed. But again, the argument can be made that he also, they, not he, but they, the Federal Reserve, you know, were part parcel to creating, I remember late 20, you know, mid, late 2021, we started seeing 4, 5, 5.8% inflation numbers, 5% inflation numbers in late 2021. And what, what wasn't, and what was the, the term that they threw around during that time after we had many, many, many months of this, many, many months of this expansion of, of inflation. Transitory inflation. Is transitory inflation's transitory inflation transfer. It wasn't Until December of 2021 they said they're going to retire the term transitory.
[00:13:35] Speaker A: And then they went, can you do that? Are you allowed to just decide we're going to retire a word?
[00:13:40] Speaker B: Exactly.
I didn't know that was part. I guess that's the, maybe that's the, the Fed. Maybe the Fed doesn't have a dual mandate. Mandate. Maybe they have a thrice mandate.
[00:13:51] Speaker C: Right.
[00:13:52] Speaker A: Well, it just sounds like a little bit of an, that just sounds like a little bit of an overreach of power on your part. On their part. Right. Like you're in charge of certain things but you don't get to control English language and decide we don't use this word anymore. It just seems like a big, a big step to take to say we're going to retire word transitory. I mean that, that just, I don't know, sorry, side tangent. Doesn't really matter. Has nothing to do with the show. I just think that it's an overreach of power.
[00:14:19] Speaker B: But they, but they said we're retiring the word transitory in December 2021. Then what happened? 2022, March 2022 came around. That was their first rate rate increase of 25 base points. Then we had 50 basis points in May and then they said they weren't going to raise ever by 75 basis points and then three weeks later they raised by 75 basis points three times in a row. Okay. To unwind this ball of, of yarn that they basically created. And now they're saying they need to wait and get more clarity. Wait and get more clarity. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the inflation that, the uncertainty of inflation surrounding tariffs, all these things. Uncertainty, uncertainty. Well, we haven't seen anything in the hard data yet. There's nothing anywhere in the hard data that's showing that these tariffs have any imposition upon inflation. And if so, and if it's, and they have also admitted that this is a, this would be a one time, largely a very temporary, maybe they shouldn't have retired because if there was a slight amount of inflation because of tariffs and it's a one time pop up in prices.
[00:15:23] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:15:24] Speaker B: Would that not be transitory? That's transitory.
[00:15:27] Speaker C: Right.
[00:15:28] Speaker B: So again, again, you're right.
They have no right to, to retire that word because now we actually might have a transitory inflation problem due to, due to tariffs. So if that's the case and they know prices are going to go from X to Y because of a tariff, that's not real inflation. That is due to demand that is nothing more than a tax.
[00:15:50] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:15:51] Speaker B: And now we're starting to see that this, this tax start to weigh in on consumer demand and, and, and housing prices and, and, and consumer goods all across the board. You know, I mean, this is, I'm going to be a little bit bold here and I think they're actually going to cut in July. I think they're going to do that. I think they're under so much pressure now because now we have two of the three permanent voting members of the Fed, which is.
So we have the, you have the voting members and they rotate in and out every year right about, I want to say about two thirds. They rotate about, maybe it's about half and half or so. I don't know what the exact number is. Rotate in and rotate out as far as voting members except for three. That is of course the, the, the chairman, which is Jay Powell, the vice chair, which is Michelle Bowman, who have typically not been a fan of, because she's been overly hawkish for no reason. Now she's overly dovish and she is a, I think a very pro Trump, which Trump is now wanting to cut rates. And I think that has a little bit to do with that. And I don't love the political influence that she may have that she may be getting which I don't love that and Waller. So now we have. Bowman and Waller both came out very, very recently advocating for a July rate cut.3 two of the three. So 2/3 of the permanent voting members are advocating for July rakeup and they have a tremendous amount of sway. Not to mention we're hearing reports that Fed is going to nominate a new, a new chairman although Jay Powell's term does not until May of 2026. What they're going to do is they're going to put someone else the nominee out there who's going to communicate to the public and to the markets and to the banks of what. What Fed policy, what influence he's going to put on Fed policy beginning May of 2026 to IE basically turned J pal and Jay Powell's communication into a lame duck term during that, during that time frame.
So I think, I think that's what's taking place right now. Now how, now how in the heck did we get to all time highs in this market rally?
[00:18:02] Speaker A: Nice catch by the way. That was about to be.
[00:18:05] Speaker B: Where, where did all that come from?
[00:18:06] Speaker C: Okay, I.
[00:18:08] Speaker A: Nice, nice catch by the way. That was about to be a bleep and, and you caught yourself. It was, it was a, it was a well, a well justified two second pause to gather your words right there because what was about to come out I think we'd have to edit. We'd have to, we'd have to start checking the box that says that this has explicit content I believe.
Good catch.
[00:18:27] Speaker B: Yeah.
We're in the gm, Chrysler.
Where's this rally coming from? I think, I mean let's talk about. We've had a 1300 point S&P rally.
[00:18:42] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:18:43] Speaker B: From call it. We had an intraday low 4835 to an intraday high right now, 6190. So you're talking you know, 1400 points almost okay. On the S P since April 8th.
[00:18:54] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:18:55] Speaker B: So. Or April, yeah, since April 8th.
Obviously a big part of it was the, the recessionary probabilities got cut right off on that day and they have also bled down since then to normal, normal rates. We've seen earnings stop, earnings estimates for 2026 stop deteriorating and start to tick up. Not, they're not, they're not going parabolic, they're not, they're not accelerating all that much on the upside. But what they're not doing is they're not, they're not contracting any further.
[00:19:34] Speaker C: So.
[00:19:35] Speaker B: And so what? I think the equity markets are now starting to See, and if you look at the two year, two years at 372 this morning, we're already past the 375 number that we talked about a couple weeks ago.
There would be not hard to get to 375 by the end of June. Well, here we are, 372. That's the bond market telling the Fed that we think inflation is, is, is really cooling down now.
[00:19:57] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:19:57] Speaker B: And the equity markets, I think are paying a tremendous amount of attention to that two year now of course they pay attention to the tenure, but I think they're really watching that too to see what the bond market folks are thinking about actual inflation. Not just the, the few people who sit in a room and, and, and scratch their chins for a couple days in Washington D.C. the Federal Reserve. These are, these are the, these are the fixed income managers, these are the bond market, these institutions. These, these people are incredible and there's a lot more of them, okay? And they really could care less what the Fed has to say as far as their opinion of inflation. They think what they think and they have all the same data and they have all the same, you know, intellectual horsepower that the Fed does, okay? And they're seeing something different and they're doing something different. They're buying these yields. They're, they're, they're, they're buying these yields because they don't think inflation is sticky. So we're seeing the longer in the curve being a little bit more stubborn simply because, you know, obviously we've had issues with the discussion of the long term strength of the dollar and the long term strength of US Debt. That could be a problem.
And that's why the longer end of the curve has been, has been a little stickier as far as the inflation side. The two year is starting to move and I think we could have a two year below 3% by the end of this year, which would be huge for the housing market. And the housing market really can suffer pretty quickly. And if the housing market suffers and the labor market really starts to contract at the same time, I don't see how that doesn't, how we don't risk contagion into the equity markets and into the broader economy.
[00:21:38] Speaker A: So one of the things that I'll just interject here is that there is, and I got to be careful not to let this go too far because it can turn into a very, very long explanation, but one of the misconceptions I think the public has is that the Fed directly controls interest rates and it's not necessarily exactly that they have a red pen that they walk around the country and say this is what the rate is going to be on every single thing. They control policy rate. And then policy rate is going to affect a lot of different things. But to your point, I mean, the, since April 8, the two years is pretty much flat. But in the last, you know, call it month, month since May 14th, the two year is down from 405. That's 33 basis points down. 33 basis points in the last, you know, six weeks, five weeks.
So the market is, the market is lowering rates.
Essentially the rate in the market right now is 33 basis points lower than it was six weeks ago. But the Fed hasn't lowered rates in the last six weeks. That's not because of.
The Fed made a decision that took rates down. The market reacted and took it down.
I bring that up to say it sounds to me like you're pounding the table and saying they have to cut now. It sounds like the market agrees with that sentiment or is already anticipating that. And ultimately the market is what affects the economy. Right. Whatever the market rate is, is what banks are going to go off of. And that's what they're, that, that's how they're gonna set their interest rates, which is gonna set mortgage rates and whatnot. So it's. And you feel free to, you know, interject or correct me if I'm saying anything wrong here, but you know, to your point there, I mean, and hey, you, you call, I mean, our April 5th show, or April 4th show, whatever it was, you called for a rip your face off rally. Well, I just looked it up from the low on April 8th to where we are now, it's about 1200 points, almost 25% from that point. So yeah, you got to rip your face off rally from that point.
But what's the, what's.
I guess what's the downside if they don't cut? What happens.
[00:23:58] Speaker B: If they don't cut? If they don't cut?
So I guess we probably need to have a little bit of discussion of the mechanics of what policy rate actually does. Okay. Yeah, actually is, is. It's the, the Federal Reserve policy rate is the rate that is set by the Fed member banks, which is your large, your JP Morgan, your Wells Fargo, your Citibank, your bank of America, your U S Bank. There's nine of them, bank of New York Mellon, there's several, couple others. Okay, what they lend money to the smaller regional banks act.
[00:24:30] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:24:31] Speaker B: And they lend and within that's what they lend them. So what the smaller banks lend to each other at is that policy rate.
[00:24:38] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:24:39] Speaker B: So which means when you go to a bank for a loan, okay, for a house, that's the money that that bank is purchasing the money for.
[00:24:47] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:24:48] Speaker B: So they can't, they, they, they can't offer you a 6% mortgage if they're buying the money at 4 and a half percent. They can offer you a 7% mortgage if they're buying the money for. And that's how they make their money. It's called the nim, the net interest margin.
[00:25:03] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:25:04] Speaker B: So they have to, so that's how that works.
[00:25:07] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:08] Speaker B: So if they don't lower that policy rate, then the banks, when they're, the smaller banks, the regional banks, when they're going to a Fed member bank and they're buying the money to lend out for you, for your mortgage or your car, whatever it is, they, they, they have to charge a higher rate so that they can make their, their money.
[00:25:24] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:25:25] Speaker B: So what's, what's happening now is this, is, this is, this looks like, this looks like the, the, the, the back, the backward version of 2021. What happened in 2021, the two years shot right through three into four and into five into early 2022. The whole time the bond market was telling the Fed you need to raise rates, you need to raise rates. This isn't transitory. Maybe the bond market was saying you need to retire the word transitory.
Okay, so, and there, and that's what the bond market's in. Bond market's doing exactly the same thing right now. It's a 3, it's a 375 and it's 372. My guess is is we'll probably have a decent CPI number come out in July and it'll fall further. Okay, we'll probably have a very lackluster job creation and jolts number for, for June, which comes out in July, which will cause to fall further. And it's going to be those things and then the market is going to have to get into a place where, okay, we like these lower yields which I think is causing the market to, to expand a little bit. The trade deals, all these things are happening, but there's this, you know, there's this hangnail on their toe that's causing them to run real fast. And that's, and that's the, these interest rates.
[00:26:41] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:26:42] Speaker B: So these interest rates don't start to come down a little bit. I'm sorry, that, I'm sorry the, the, the Economy is showing signs of cooling. Not the industry. The economy is showing signs of cooling. So is it cold? No. Is it cooling? Yes. Will it stop here? No. Okay, what, but what would cause it to stop almost here and potentially turn around and go the other, go the other way that the equity markets would have the ability to see through because they're looking into 20, 26 already anyway.
Okay, that would be, that would be an acknowledge, a true acknowledgment that inflation seems to be in the rear view mirror for the most part and maybe an acknowledgment of hey, but we'll be flexible. And do we really think if they cut 25 basis points or even 50 basis points in July that's going to have a material impact on inflation? Of course not. Okay, and if they cut 25, then cut 20, if they would cut 50 and then 25 and then 25 and then they, maybe they take a full point off of this thing by the end of the year. So we're sitting at upper bound of three and a half.
[00:27:42] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:27:42] Speaker B: And they hold that for a couple meetings and they can always go back up. They're not, they're not stuck anywhere. So I, I don't understand.
We were having a little meeting this morning. What I don't understand is why this Fed want, doesn't want to be, doesn't want to be flexible from meeting to meeting.
[00:28:02] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:28:02] Speaker B: It seems like they want to be pedal to the metal.
Rates are zero. Rates are zero. Rates are zero.
Oh, well, we missed that one. Let me shut this economy all the way down and raise rates by the fastest, by the fastest in, the fastest speed in history to.
Oh, looks like we're gonna get it wrong again. Now we're gonna have to start chopping rates to keep this thing from going into a recession. It seems to be, it seems to be a bathtub sloshing policy behavior. Like it's either all one way or all the other right there. I think they're, if they were to moderate their policy adjustments and say, hey, we're going to be flexible here, say we're going to start cutting, we're going to start cutting. If we start to see signal three or four months directionally in the same way that we, that we don't like, we start to see inflation, we're going to hold, we're going to hold, we're going to hold. And if we start to see it more, we might actually have to take one of those rate cuts away. That's perfectly okay. There's nothing wrong with that, okay, but just, but just sitting in your chair and scratching your chin ad nauseam forever saying, we're going to wait it out until most of this uncertainty has passed us. We're going to wait it out until most of this uncertainty has passed us. Well, there is no such thing as no uncertainty.
What's funny is they talk about this uncertainty and they have to get through this uncertainty before they're willing to do anything. But then in the same meetings all the time, they say forecasting is inherently difficult to do and we know we're not going to get it.
[00:29:33] Speaker C: Right.
[00:29:34] Speaker B: Right.
You are correct.
No one believes that the Federal Reserve has a crystal ball. You have very smart people with a lot of data.
[00:29:45] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:29:45] Speaker B: But there's also a lot of hard data that's directionally negative with decon.
So, you know, there's nothing wrong with saying, you know what? There is uncertainty, there will always be uncertainty. But what we do know now is we've had a series, we've had some cooling on the, on the consumer side.
We're not seeing anything on materially manifest itself on the inflation side from, you know, and no, no tariff imposed inflation.
So we're due for a rate cut and we'll go down this road until we think maybe we need to hold. And then if we need to hold or adjust back the other way, we can always do that. You know, it's. I'm just not understanding, I'm not understanding the permanence, I guess, for lack of a better word, of their policy positions that it takes, you know, literally the President and the entire Congress and the bond market screaming at the top of their lungs for them to do anything.
[00:30:45] Speaker A: Yeah.
Well, as always, we'll wrap it up here. The Intelligent Investment show is for your entertainment, education, amusement and whatever else you want to call it purposes. We're not here to tell you what to do with your money.
And the simple reason that I like to say for that is neither Matt nor I know anything about your financial situation. So it would be really foolish of us to tell you what to do with your money. That's not very professional of us. So that's not what we're doing. We're just here to talk about the market.
However, that's a great way to segue into a plug for Matt's business. If you would like to seek professional financial advice and work with someone who does get to know your financial situation so they can make advice or make advice. My English is getting terrible, man. But we've got to work on our English language in the south here so that they can make recommendations and give you advice. You can contact Matt and his team at arpg at 702-655-8300 or visit intelligentinvestment.com Matt has the best hair and the coolest website domain in the industry.
I think that's a compliant endorsement. Right. I can't necessarily say you're brilliant or any of that kind of stuff that gets me in trouble because that's an endorsement. We got to fill out a bunch of paperwork, but I can say you have the best here in the coolest website domain.
[00:31:56] Speaker B: I believe we do have a cool domain. Name my hair. I'm having a decent hair day. But it's all a facade because I'm a huge nerd.
[00:32:04] Speaker A: Yeah, I just noticed when you look down there, you've got a straggler there. One of those front ones is kind of out ahead of you right there.
[00:32:11] Speaker B: Yeah, it's definitely doing like the. The Clark Kent thing, isn't it?
[00:32:14] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. You got to work on that after the show. But as long as you're. It's. See, it's. It's three dimensional. As long as you're looking straight on. Can't see it.
It's a facade. It's exactly what it is. It's a facade.
[00:32:26] Speaker B: There we go.
[00:32:26] Speaker C: Left.
[00:32:27] Speaker A: All right, There we go.
[00:32:28] Speaker B: That's wind resistance there.
[00:32:30] Speaker A: Now we're, now we're getting somewhere. All right, Matt. Enjoy Tahoe, man. You're. So you head to Tahoe next week?
[00:32:36] Speaker B: Yeah, me and the family, we're gonna go up there, celebrate the fourth of July. It's wonderful up there. It's beautiful. Beautiful up there. It's my wife's favorite destiny vacation destination and it's quickly becoming mine. So I intend on enjoying a few adult beverages, gaining some weight and looking at the back of my eyelids.
[00:32:56] Speaker A: Yeah, it sounds like a fantastic Fourth of July. Happy birthday, America.
We'll see you July 11th. We'll be back live July 11th. And I'm looking forward to a well rested and recuperated Matthew Dahl on the ARP on the Intelligent Investment show when you get back here in July. See you, brother. Have a good one. Bye.
[00:33:16] Speaker D: Discussions in the Intelligent Investment show are for educational purposes only. The information presented should not be considered specific investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular course of action. Always consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation before making investment or financial decisions. The views and opinions expressed are based on current economic and market conditions and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that any statements of future expectations will come to fruition. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. Securities offered through United Planners Financial Services Member finra SIPC Advisory services offered through American Retirement Planning Group. ARPG and United Planners are independent companies. Garrett, Lille and Wealth Partners are not affiliated with ARPG or United Planners. Any endorsement that I may have given during this recording it is important to note that I am not a client of arpg. The views expressed should not be considered representative in any way of my ask present or future experience with Matt or arpg. No incentives have been provided to me in connection with any endorsements I may have given on the Intelligent Investment show. Investing involves risks and there is no guarantee of any future results, performance or.
