Matt Blames Powell for His Gray Hair

[00:00:03] Speaker A: Welcome to Intelligent Investment Live with Matt Dahl. I'm Garrett Lille. Matt, good to see you, my friend. As always, I'm not looking quite as. I'm not quite my hot usual self that I haven't shaved. And I'll tell you what, getting old is no joke. I have to go through anytime I'm going to be on camera. I have to go through about five minutes before and just check the eyebrows and random places for those long, straggly hairs. Has that struck. Has that stricken you yet? Or are you. It doesn't show. But do you find long hairs in places they didn't used to be? [00:00:36] Speaker B: Absolutely. All the time. [00:00:38] Speaker C: Okay. [00:00:38] Speaker B: Usually on my pillow, you know. And don't say you don't look hot. You look great. You look silky. You're like Billy Dee Williams covered in olive oil. [00:00:46] Speaker A: Well, I've gone. I like to think that I've gone from, like, cute schoolboy hot to, like, now rugged old man. I'm, like, trying to grow into the rugged old man look. I don't know. It's a transition. [00:00:55] Speaker B: You're like. You're like. You're like a Dan Rather kind of sexy. [00:01:00] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm kind of. That's what I'm going for. You know, I think I started off. I don't even know what I was going for, like, in the high school days or the college days, but. But, yeah, I think I'm trying to figure out how to mature my way into, like, the distinguished look. I'm not there yet, but it's a. It's a work in progress. You know, you have that. You. You have a timeless look. [00:01:19] Speaker C: Like, you. [00:01:20] Speaker A: I don't mean to, like, you know, go all bromance on you here, but, I mean, you would have more. Yeah, you've got the kind of rugged handsomeness that would have worked in the 50s, 70s, 80s. Like, you. You just. You're timeless, man. You got a timeless look. [00:01:34] Speaker D: Thank you. [00:01:35] Speaker B: I. I feel like I look like a garbage bag full of yogurt most of the time. [00:01:39] Speaker D: But, you know, I don't know. [00:01:42] Speaker B: You know, I was. I was that fix. I stopped. I don't do the just for men thing, and thank God the color has held in there. I have my dad to thank for that. [00:01:50] Speaker D: I do. [00:01:52] Speaker B: I do. My mom was great as a mule since the time she was like, 35 or something. But my dad, he's like. He's like a helmet. Like Ronald Reagan. [00:02:01] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:02:02] Speaker A: The good and bad news, I guess I've always been the spitting image of my dad. So there's actually a picture of my mom and dad on a. This is probably like, I was probably like 15, 16, 18 years old, something like that. And there's a picture. Hang on, let me get this right. The picture is of my mom and dad and they're like hugging and they're like all close to each other and stuff like this. And when I saw the picture, I was like, mom, I don't remember that picture being taken. When was that? And she's like, she told me what it was. And I was like, oh, that's dad. I thought that was me. So as I'm like, I don't remember getting all close like that with my mom, but it was my dad. It was just he then looks like I do now. The picture's like 20 years old. So the good news is I know exactly what's coming my way. But my dad started gray when he was like 31, 32. So like now I'm seeing okay. And now he's at 63, 64, starting to go a little bald and a little thin. So I can see what's heading my way. And that's okay. We just. At least you can prepare, you know. [00:03:03] Speaker D: Oh, yeah. [00:03:04] Speaker B: You know, I mean, listen, enjoy the time we have. That we have right where they say the youth is wasted on the young. [00:03:11] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I've already wasted mine. So that's. Anyway, I used up my. The good tread on my tires a little inefficiently, but hey, now we'll see what we can do with what's left of it, you know, dude, but I'm. [00:03:24] Speaker B: My tires are bald. They've been showing the steel belts in them for. Since I was 12, you know. [00:03:30] Speaker A: Well, I tell my friends all the time we went pretty hard in the. The college days, so. I mean, you go that hard that long, you're not going to get the same life out of the tires that you would have if you had kind of nursed them a little bit, you know, there is something to be said for being efficient. And we were not that any of us. And now you got to kind of nurse it to the finish line at that point. [00:03:51] Speaker B: Yeah, the. Your organs, you know, need a lot of time to recuperate from college. [00:03:57] Speaker A: They do. Especially for the ECU alum. I mean, we really. We had a really good time. We didn't make the top 10 party list five years or 10 years in a row for nothing. We earned it. So anyway, so. So what's going on in the world? We had. You said that we're finally starting to see a little bit of a shift in the, in the language from, from Jay Powell. [00:04:23] Speaker B: Today. I think we can mark it on our calendar with a big X and a heart. [00:04:27] Speaker D: Right? [00:04:28] Speaker B: Today was the shift. Today was the actual pivot. Okay, where they pivoted. Dovish. And we can attribute it to Trump putting pressure on them. We can attribute it to the weakening labor numbers. You can attribute it to whatever you'd like. [00:04:45] Speaker D: Right? [00:04:46] Speaker B: But there are reasons for them not to be dovish. There are reason for them not to pivot, but they did anyway. So we'll accept it for what it is. And I think there's a true acknowledgment that the risks now are on the labor, on the labor side and the labor market side, more so than the inflationary side. At least that's what J. Pal thinks. And I believe that to be the consensus, not necessarily the entire consensus, but the plurality of the voting members. [00:05:12] Speaker D: Right. [00:05:12] Speaker B: Now, don't get me wrong, Beth Hammock came out and I actually wrote notes here. Hammock is out to lunch, right? Inflation too high. Believes modest. She believes we're only modestly restrictive and that her neutral rate is much higher than most. And which says to me she thinks neutral is 4%. Okay, well, that will of course crash the labor market. And we're again, we are at 37,000 jobs on a. 37,000 jobs per month on a three month rolling average right now, which is really, really low. [00:05:44] Speaker D: Okay? [00:05:45] Speaker B: So I don't know how much more data you need. [00:05:48] Speaker D: Okay. [00:05:49] Speaker B: But we clearly are not just modestly restrictive. We are very restrictive. Now back to the tariffs. Well, what about the inflation caused by tariffs? Okay, that's not inflation. [00:05:59] Speaker D: Okay? [00:06:00] Speaker B: That's not. Inflation happens as a result of an imbalance of supply and demand. [00:06:04] Speaker D: Okay? [00:06:05] Speaker B: There's too much demand or there's not enough supply. This is not that. This is a price level shift, a price level increase caused by a tax on imports. That's what this is. This is not inflation caused by inflationary pressures. So once that price pops up and sits there and it's not attributable to economic factors, in fact, it will do the, as we talked about before, we view it as a, as a fiscal restriction, thus should have a resulting monetary easing on the other side to sort of counteract that, to make sure that it doesn't impact the labor market or have a deeper cut into the economy somehow. But this reminds, this reminds me today, this is the polar opposite. This is the shift 180° the South Pole versus North Pole of the December 2021 meeting. [00:06:56] Speaker D: Okay. [00:06:56] Speaker B: The speech he gave that he's going to retire, that he's going to retire the term transitory at that meeting. [00:07:03] Speaker D: Okay. [00:07:04] Speaker B: And that's when we started having serious inflation into 2021, the back half of 2021. We saw labor, I'm sorry, we saw lumber spike. We really started to see the commodity spike. But that was a result of supply chain issues and a result of increased demand because we gave, you know, everybody $9 trillion to go spend and do whatever they wanted with. And we had supply chains that were shut down. Okay, that is a supply demand imbalance. That is actual inflation. But from there they raised, they raised their, their interest rates 525 and a quarter percent over the course of 16 months. [00:07:39] Speaker D: Okay. [00:07:40] Speaker B: Which was incredible, which is incredibly rapid pace. And they did that obviously to cool the inflation, which they have called inflation. But they know if they wait too long, obviously it's going to restrict the economy. It's going to cause people not to want to go spend money on expanding their business, hiring new people and what have you. And that's what we're starting, that's getting into that now, the tariffs through kind of a monkey wrench into that equation because we don't really know what that looks like, how it's going to affect demand, how it's going to affect prices. They have an idea what it's going to do to prices, but they also believe that it's a temporary slash transitory event that's nothing more than sort of a, just a kind of a pop up and there it goes. But it's not true inflation. So if that's the case, okay, we know how, we still know how to deal with that. And we, and at that point in time, can we define it as further restriction in the economy rather than inflation? So let's try to ease on the other side. So I think this is a really great title. I'm still sticking with my we are in a very tough time of the year. This is seasonally weak time. [00:08:45] Speaker D: Okay. [00:08:45] Speaker B: And here we are, we're right back to where we were on August 13th. [00:08:50] Speaker D: Okay. [00:08:50] Speaker B: We're kind of 64.75 number. It popped up and here we are. Is there room to run? It could, we could see a market run to 6,550, maybe even 6,600 before we get a more of a bigger pullback. Okay, that could happen. Anything. I mean we could get a, a gnarly PCE number. [00:09:08] Speaker D: Okay. [00:09:09] Speaker B: A bad CPI number and a hot job Sprint Okay. Is it likely anything's possible these days? [00:09:14] Speaker D: Okay. [00:09:15] Speaker B: If that happens. Okay, then we're gonna see, we're gonna see that, that, that fed, that cut, okay that was by the way down to 65% for September. The market had priced that all the way in. [00:09:26] Speaker D: Okay. [00:09:27] Speaker B: And then that, that hot PPI came out and that started to pull that, that basically there was 100% chance of a September rate cut. Then the hot PPI came in and pulled that number down all the way down to 65%. [00:09:38] Speaker D: Okay. [00:09:39] Speaker B: Now you look at it right now it's 91%. So the speech this morning moved that right up when he gave that line. There's shifting risks. May warrant adjusting our policy stance. [00:09:54] Speaker A: Yeah, I was going to ask what the specific language was that signaled the shift. Curious and I think I might know the answer to this, but you're smarter than us, so we'll let you do it. Instead. The stock market. I know you're gonna say that the stock market made a big response to this. We've, we're up, you know, percent and a half today or so, give give or take. Touching right on the all time highs. I was just looking at my, I had to pull out the old candlestick charts to see do we actually get through the, the previous cycle a couple of weeks ago we didn't quite. We're just a couple of points below it so far at 115 Eastern. But the bond market, I mean it's reacted, but it's not a massive move. We were sitting around 430 on the 10 year and now we're sitting at 425, 4.258. So I mean it's a move, but it's not a massive move. What's your, what's your. Is this just another case of the bond market's not surprised, but the stock market is. [00:11:00] Speaker B: No, I kind of think, I mean if you look, if you do the math you're talking about, it was about six basis points on four and about 4.3. So you're talking nearly a one and a half percent move. [00:11:10] Speaker A: Okay, so there are about equivalent. [00:11:12] Speaker B: So they're, they're pretty equivalent. In fact, I wrote it down. That's, that's a, that's a pretty strong move. The other thing we saw is we saw a 10 basis point decrease on the two year. Okay, that one from 379, actually 11 to 368. We have a, we have a big steepening in the curve Today, up to 58 basis points on the 210 so this is, this is what I think is some, some bull steepening. And as that two year really starts to come down and that two year really starts to price in those Fed cuts and price in, you know, with this deregulatory environment and lower interest rates. What are we going to get with lower interest rates? We're going to get, we're going to get more economic activity, we're going to get more supply side activity. When we get that supply side, okay, that is going to rein in inflation. [00:11:58] Speaker D: Okay. [00:11:59] Speaker B: And I think the bond market knows that. [00:12:01] Speaker D: Okay. [00:12:01] Speaker B: And I think we're going to start, we're going to, we're going to see that, that 293% on that two year toward the end of the year, which will put us and I here's where things are going to start to get real nice and really normal. [00:12:14] Speaker D: Okay? [00:12:14] Speaker B: The long term average between the two and the 10 is 85 basis points. [00:12:18] Speaker D: Okay. [00:12:18] Speaker B: So we said we had a tale of two markets. We were gonna either have this tariff thing just go out of, out of control or there was going to be deals cut and this thing was going to go to 68, 960, 900 by. [00:12:29] Speaker D: The end of the year. [00:12:29] Speaker B: It was, there was no in between. It was one or the other. Clearly it's the other. [00:12:34] Speaker D: Okay. [00:12:35] Speaker B: And we sort of, we said that in June, like this appears like we're favoring the 6900 number. [00:12:40] Speaker D: Okay. [00:12:41] Speaker B: Because, well, because, well, not only are we seeing these deals cut, okay? So the tariff, the tariff impact is much less lesser than we thought it would be. [00:12:53] Speaker D: Okay. [00:12:54] Speaker B: We're starting to see this deregulatory environment probably keep interest rates down. And now we have this nice normal yield curve. [00:13:03] Speaker D: Okay. [00:13:04] Speaker B: We have a 293 year, 290ish, maybe 3% on the 2 year. Toward the end of the year we have a 375, 380 on the 10 year which then brings up. And that's the catalyst that gets us to that 6900 number. [00:13:17] Speaker D: Okay. [00:13:18] Speaker B: Because I looked at it today and I, I had to check in two places to make sure I wasn't losing my mind and my computer screen wasn't broken. [00:13:27] Speaker D: Okay. [00:13:29] Speaker B: Both the NASDAQ and the S and P, as far as they don't track, they only track it back, I want to say about three or four, about three and a half years. [00:13:37] Speaker D: Okay. [00:13:38] Speaker B: But FactSet, as long as it can be tracked, okay, There, the month of August has the highest amount of upward revisions ever in earnings. [00:13:49] Speaker D: Okay. [00:13:50] Speaker B: So for this year so, you know, I want, I think it's as I'm looking at 20, 25 earnings like, okay, so this is, and this is, it's already up to S and P is up to 67% upward revisions, okay. Nasdaq is up to 50%. [00:14:08] Speaker D: Okay. [00:14:09] Speaker B: Now the Nasdaq, it's a lower number, but it's a much higher bar. It's a much higher threshold to jump over. [00:14:14] Speaker D: Okay? [00:14:16] Speaker B: So we've got the best earnings revisions we've seen ever. Upward, upper revisions ever. We've got a dovish Fed now. We've pivoted to a dovish Fed. We know we're getting several new Fed members because I guess Lisa Cook is, well, she's cooked. [00:14:33] Speaker D: Right. [00:14:34] Speaker B: And he's, Trump's obvious going to nominate someone who's going to lean dovish. Trump's also going to nominate a Fed chair who's dovish. And we're going to go into this, we're going to go into this, into this, this regime now where we have lower rates now. So now we have lower rates, a better regulatory environment. [00:14:55] Speaker D: Okay. [00:14:56] Speaker B: And a very dovish Fed and very pro business president. [00:15:00] Speaker D: Okay? [00:15:01] Speaker B: So we're starting to see. And we also have, we also have very low gas prices now. [00:15:08] Speaker D: Okay. [00:15:08] Speaker B: And they're kind of trending lower. So that in and of itself is a tax cut. [00:15:13] Speaker D: Okay. [00:15:14] Speaker B: That in and of itself kind of removes that pain from the tariffs. Get tariffs. You know, it costs you a few extra dollars to buy your, your shoes. Yeah. But if it costs you $3 less to go back and forth to the store that day, it kind of offsets. So there, there's a lot of counterbalances right now that's happening that are happening in the economy. And this really bodes well. This. And I think, and actually of Fundstrap came out with it. Actually, they were the first to come out with a couple months ago. But Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley actually acknowledged it. He's typically been more of your bearish, leaning guy. [00:15:50] Speaker D: Okay. [00:15:50] Speaker B: He's kind of a waiting for the shoe to drop kind of guy. I disagree with him most of the time. And that has served me very, very well. [00:15:57] Speaker D: Okay. [00:15:57] Speaker B: And I, and I find myself when I agree with Mike Wilson, I go, okay, what am I missing here? He can't be right. He's right, he's right. He thinks we're in a new bull market. But this bull market, and it started in, it started after the 20 increase from the April lows, okay. But the bear market started last July, Okay. And he's not wrong. It's been sort of a flat, you know, the text have been pretty flat. [00:16:25] Speaker D: Okay. [00:16:26] Speaker B: So he believes that the, I'm sorry, but the underpinnings of the, of the market have been in a bear market. Not necessarily the tech sector or your growth sectors, but a large part of the, you know, your industrials and your materials and everything else, they have been in a bear market for the last year. And now we're starting to come out of that. And so what I did is I looked into, okay, I think we're going to, if we get a pullback, what does that pullback look like? If we're getting kind of this expanding breadth. [00:16:49] Speaker D: Right. [00:16:50] Speaker B: So I focused in on the nasdaq, right. And the number I put on The NASDAQ was 19,500. So we have a peak of 20 of 21 7, 21 8. [00:17:00] Speaker D: Okay. [00:17:01] Speaker B: So I think that might pull down to that 95, 198 number. [00:17:05] Speaker D: Okay. [00:17:05] Speaker B: But I don't think we're going to get, I don't think we're going to get near the pull down on the S P if in fact we do get one. [00:17:12] Speaker D: Okay. [00:17:12] Speaker B: Which I'm. You will probably get an opportunity, something happening in September, maybe October, somewhere in that time frame. But I think it'll be more of a tech driven pullback and it'll be rotation, nothing more than a distribution cycle that people have made a lot of money on these techs and they're wanting to rotate into something that maybe is starting to get, are in the nascent stages of kind of coming out of their slumber like your, like your healthcare type companies. [00:17:40] Speaker A: So you mentioned that the, the September rate cut odds went from 65 to 91%. Last show we talked about the possibility of a double rate cut and it was basically at zero. Was there any change in that? [00:17:52] Speaker B: There is no change. [00:17:54] Speaker A: Okay, so still not looking for a double, but we do. That's, that's interesting. So it's like we, we know now that we're going to, it's going to be a little softer, but no change in a big move. [00:18:04] Speaker B: But we do have a 45 chance of the early November rate cut. And we're sticking to this, We've said it since January. Three rate cuts. Three rate cuts, plus or minus one. [00:18:21] Speaker A: So whether that's two in September, one in October or one in September, one in October, one in November. [00:18:26] Speaker B: So now we're September, November, December, September, November. [00:18:29] Speaker A: Okay, gotcha. This is not the best question I've ever asked probably, but I'm just curious. Is There any. Trump is not supposed to have any impact on the Fed, but he is and he is dovish. Is there anything that could potentially change that could make him shift Hawkish? Is this a Trump personality, pro business wants, you know, always lean, dovish kind of situation or is it just a. Right now based on the economy? That's the pressure he's looking to apply. Is there. If the economy changed drastically between now and next spring, is there a chance that he doesn't appoint someone who's dovish? [00:19:20] Speaker B: That's a, that's a spicy meatball. I would say it would take basically a meteoric spike of inflation caused by demand increases. Purely demand increases, not supply chain. Nothing. Just there was somehow some way. We had an influx. We had, we had a, just, just a spike in demand. [00:19:53] Speaker D: Okay. [00:19:54] Speaker B: And although supply chains are, are plentiful and they're, they're running smoothly and they're going, they're actually growing, they're not able to keep up with some perceived spike in demand. He's a, he's not stupid, he's very smart guy. So I think he would get there, but I think it would take him a long time to get there. And I think in order for him to get there, he would have to go through the problem's not interest rates. We don't have enough supply. We need more supply, but we need more supply. And he would pound on the business sector, all across the businesses, especially the banks, to fund these companies to get supply chains running to bring those prices down. That's how I think he would tackle this thing. [00:20:46] Speaker D: Okay. [00:20:47] Speaker B: Because he's inherently, he wants low interest rates. He wants easy access to capital so the economy can grow. I mean, I'm not saying it would never happen, but it would probably. I mean, it would have to be a very specific set of circumstances that were of magnitudes that would gag a maggot for him to want to raise interest rates. [00:21:16] Speaker A: And you've maintained really the entire year 6100 or 6900. No, in between. We're one or the other. We're definitely trending the direction of 6900. Are there any non black swan events that could change that? If we do get the, if we do get what we seem to be hopefully getting from the interest rate side, other than just another whatever Covid 2.0 or whatever else, any other black swan, is there anything else that could pose a risk that brings a scenario in where we do get the interest rate environment that we're talking about, but we still end up at 6100. [00:21:56] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean let's say we've got, obviously we get sort of a few outliers on inflation, right? And we get a decent jobs report. Nothing crazy, nothing Black Swanee, just, just strong jobs report, high inflation and we start to see demand. Wayne, we saw some, we saw some retail misses. We call it the retail wreck this week, okay? Retail has been punished this week, okay? So we start to see some of those, we start to see some earnings misses in your, in your Microsoft's and your Nvidias, in your Apples and your Googles and your Metas, those, those, those areas. And then we start to look, we start to price in a, you know, a 3852 year kind of where it is now, maybe a little bit higher than where it is now. We start to price in a 4 40, 10 year at the end instead of kind of 375 and 3%. [00:22:51] Speaker D: Okay? [00:22:52] Speaker B: We start to, we start to, we start to price in a better Fed, but not the pivot that we were expecting. We start to price in a neutral rate next year of not 3%, maybe 3 and 3/4%. Just, it could, I mean it could be a few little pieces on the, on the puzzle that just shift around and that would pull it back to probably your 62,6300 range. [00:23:16] Speaker D: Okay? [00:23:17] Speaker B: But you know, again, I think I, I don't see that happening. I think, I mean if you look at the summary of economic projections, I mean they, they brought, they brought GDP down this year to 1.4% and they did that. So clearly the Fed has acknowledged the slowing economy both on the GDP side and on the labor side. Those are smart people, you know, and they know, well, it's their fault. Not, I don't mean it's their fault in a bad way, it's their fault. [00:23:45] Speaker D: In a good way. [00:23:45] Speaker B: They wanted this to happen because, you know, they didn't want people paying, you know, $27 for a box of strawberries. [00:23:53] Speaker D: And I can get that right. [00:23:54] Speaker B: But now we're starting to see, we're really starting to see. Again, I don't see this taking place because as we start to price in a dovish Fed, as we start to price in a little, you know, easier monetary policy, we're starting to see the dollar really cool off, which is really great for your emerging markets, which is really great for your tech companies because remember the earnings, the revenue generated in your tech sector, which is 30%, 31% of the S&P 500 now, 64%, 64 ish percent of that revenue is generated internationally, so our cooling dollar helps those people purchase those products. [00:24:26] Speaker D: Okay. [00:24:27] Speaker B: And I think we'll see a nice earnings revision. I think that's where I think some of these earnings revisions are coming from. Is that cooling dollar okay? Because it's going to bolster demand, you know, internationally. [00:24:40] Speaker A: Most important question that I've got. I mean, this is. This is pretty much the whole reason that I even hopped on and bothered doing the show today. Did you try the Jersey? Mike's hot honey chicken Philly. [00:24:52] Speaker B: I have not. My daughter's getting married, and I'm gonna have. I'm see people. [00:24:59] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:25:00] Speaker B: And I'm so insecure. [00:25:02] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:25:02] Speaker A: No, don't touch it. Don't, don't. Don't go there. [00:25:04] Speaker B: If you like, stay away from sodium. Anything that tastes good. [00:25:08] Speaker D: I don't. [00:25:08] Speaker B: I try not to even smile anymore. [00:25:11] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:25:11] Speaker A: Now don't. Don't go there. If you're trying to get in a suit that's borderline or anything. Yeah, don't. Because you'll. You try it once. [00:25:17] Speaker B: You. [00:25:18] Speaker A: You get, like, the medium size just to try it out, and then the next day you go back and you get, like, the giant $20 version that's 7,000 calories. Don't go there until you're. Until you're ready to pick out. Because it is. I didn't eat it Friday because I just didn't. I didn't have much of an appetite, I guess, Friday afternoon, or I can't remember, maybe I had something else going on. I didn't eat for a while, and by the time I ate, the craving of pass. But I did get it Saturday morning. Like, Jersey Mike's opens at 10:30. I had my order in at 10:30, and that was my breakfast. So, yeah, it's. It's fantastic. [00:25:52] Speaker B: So I call that. I call that your third beer food. [00:25:55] Speaker A: Your what? [00:25:56] Speaker B: I call it third beer food. Third what that means. [00:25:59] Speaker D: It does. [00:26:00] Speaker B: It doesn't mean what you think it means. Your third beer. Your third beer. Like, after your third beer, like, your third beer always leads to your sixth beer. [00:26:09] Speaker A: Yeah, it's always like that. [00:26:12] Speaker B: One of those sandwiches always leads to 10 more sandwiches. [00:26:15] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:26:15] Speaker B: Probably the next two weeks. Like, next thing you know, you're just ordering it every night, and it's really good. And then you step on the scale and can barely see your toes. [00:26:23] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:26:24] Speaker B: You know, you're on a respirator. You're taking insulin. [00:26:28] Speaker A: My scales have actually done me a great favor. The battery is not working. So now when I get on it all it Says is low, which I know means battery low, but I just look at it as. It's telling me you're good. It's a low number. You don't need to worry about it. Just it's. It's low. So I've just been taking that as a. [00:26:45] Speaker C: Okay. [00:26:46] Speaker A: My scales are encouraging me every single time that I get on them that I'm in good shape. No, Nothing to worry about. [00:26:51] Speaker D: Perfect. [00:26:52] Speaker A: So I appreciate that. I think it's coming. [00:26:53] Speaker B: I don't think I'm changing, eat enough of them. You know, like, oh, that was really good. But when you see it and you start to sweat because you know the enjoyment it's going to give you. [00:27:02] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:27:02] Speaker B: Then you have a problem. Then you've relapsed. [00:27:04] Speaker A: Yeah, it's. It's a dangerous. I love the metaphor there though, because you're, there's a lot to that because your first beer can be. Can stand alone. Your second beer can stand alone. That third beer does usually end up creating like a wormhole to the sixth beer really quickly. [00:27:19] Speaker B: That's. That's the wormhole beer. That's. It's the third. It's the third. It'S the third whole beer. The Wormhole beer is your third beer. It's the wormhole. It's like you should be like Jordi Laforge and Jean Luc Picard and Wharf there. Like, okay, we found this wormhole. You know, speaking of beers, the Golden Road. The Golden Road Brewery Red. The grb. It's a California based brewery. It's their red. Oh, my God. Shout out to those guys. Such a good beer. There's only one place in Vegas that has it. It's called the Great American Pub. Going there today. I'm ubering there today and I'm going to Uber home because I, you know, you don't drink and drive. Never drink and drive. [00:27:59] Speaker A: That's right. I like that you're going ahead and ubering there to start with. [00:28:02] Speaker D: You. [00:28:02] Speaker A: You are fully aware that this is not going to be a one stop or a one beer stop. [00:28:06] Speaker B: No, no, no, no. This, this, this beer should be appreciated, loved and endured. And I'm going to endure it. [00:28:16] Speaker A: Well, I hope you do. I hope it's. I hope it's a. I hope it doesn't disappoint today. I hope you don't get a skunky one or, you know, they're a little off their formula or whatever. I hope it's every bit that they. [00:28:26] Speaker B: Got those really nice. So I don't. I, I do the Pints. I don't like the big tall 22 ounces because they get warm for the end, right? But they've got the, they've got these, they got these pint steins there right into the thick, thick ones, the glass thick steins, and they freeze them dead cold. I mean, you almost get an ice burn on your hand when you grab. So that thing comes out ice cold, goes into an ice cold stein. It stays cold because it's thick. I, I would marry that beer. [00:28:54] Speaker A: Well, and you know, it's a good beer when, because you mentioned you don't want it to get. You don't like the tallest because they get cold and I can just. Or they get hot. And I could say to that, well, then drink it faster. But to your point, you don't want to drink it faster. You want to take it in. You want to enjoy it. A decent beer, you can drink it fast. So it doesn't get hot. [00:29:09] Speaker B: But a good beer, it's not Michelob, Ultra or Papin. I mean, it's good beer. It's good flavor. It's, it's full bodied. It's, the color is beautiful. It's a beautiful brunette. [00:29:25] Speaker A: I really, I sincerely hope your wife does not watch the show and especially doesn't watch this one because I think she might actually get jealous of the infatuation you have with this beer. [00:29:38] Speaker B: I know. And I have no control. I have no control over it. It's that good. It's a really good beer. I hope there's still a spike. [00:29:48] Speaker A: I do too. Yeah. If we see a lift from this episode, we're going to reach out to them for sponsorship because that is maybe the best endorsement that they've ever gotten. I hope, I hope this gets out to a large audience. And Golden Road Brewery grb. [00:30:03] Speaker B: They're red. Just the best. It kind of reminds me of the old, old Fat Tire from like. [00:30:08] Speaker C: Oh, yeah, yeah. [00:30:10] Speaker B: It's, it's just, it's like that, but a little bit more flavor to it. [00:30:17] Speaker A: Yeah, I was a big fat tire. [00:30:19] Speaker B: I mean, the Fed pivoted after all these years. I mean, in 2021, when he was, when he was dovish, all those years they were dovish, I'd have a single gray hair. This is all their fault. Their, their restrictive monetary policy has ruined my hair. [00:30:36] Speaker A: That is, that may be the biggest indictment that we can give right there. I mean, that's, that's, that's so unfair. It is, it's, it's very, it's, it's downright disrespectful. Really, when you think about it. [00:30:47] Speaker B: So no one ever asked me, like, what about your hair? Well, you know, I mean, before you raise these rates and, you know, don't forget about my hair. You know, there's a lot of. There's a lot of us portfolio managers that look a lot older than we did three years ago. [00:31:04] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:31:05] Speaker B: You know, they've taken us for a ride. [00:31:07] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:31:08] Speaker A: Well, cheers to a better ride the rest of the year. Hope you enjoy your Friday afternoon. Always a pleasure. And we'll see you next time. I got to offer out almost that I've got to do the closures here, but we're here for entertainment and education only and for, you know, food and beer advice. So you can take our advice on that, but do not take our advice when it comes to the stock market or how to manage your money because we don't know you. We don't know your financial situation. I'll play the official compliance approved version of that here in just a second. If you would like to reach Matt, though, you can give them a call at 702-655-8300. I'm going off memory. Did I get it right? [00:31:46] Speaker B: That's correct. [00:31:46] Speaker A: I didn't even pull it up. There you go. So you can reach out to them or visit intelligent investment.com. join us next Friday, one Eastern, 10 Pacific. And we will. We'll get the update on how, how the, how Matt's afternoon went. And be safe. Enjoy your celebration. This is a dovish Fed celebration. I hope you enjoy it. [00:32:09] Speaker D: There we go. [00:32:10] Speaker B: Sandwiches, stock. Sandwiches, Stocks and steins. [00:32:14] Speaker D: There you go. Love it. [00:32:16] Speaker A: I have so many choices for what to name this episode now. I'd written down nice and normal earlier, but we've got like two or three other candidates for the name now, so I have to go back and think through it. [00:32:26] Speaker B: Matt blames Jay Powell for his gray hair. [00:32:29] Speaker A: That works, too. I think we can go with that. [00:32:33] Speaker B: Jay would respond, well, have you seen my hair? [00:32:39] Speaker A: All right. Have a good weekend, my friend. We'll see you soon. [00:32:42] Speaker C: Bye. [00:32:42] Speaker E: Discussions in the Intelligent Investment show are for educational purposes only. The information presented should not be considered specific investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular course of action. Always consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation before making or financial decisions. The views and opinions expressed are based on current economic and market conditions and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that any statements of future expectations will come to fruition. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal securities offered through United Planners Financial Services member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services offered through American Retirement Planning Group. ARPG and United Planners are independent companies. Garrett Lille and Wealth Partners are not affiliated with ARPG or United Planners. Any endorsement that I may have given during this recording it is important to note that I am not a client of arpg. The views expressed should not be considered representative in any way of my past, present or future experience with MAT or arpg. 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