Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Foreign.
What's up? Welcome back, Matt. And any viewers on YouTube, listeners on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, wherever this is Intelligent Investment Live. Just decided to mix up the intro a little bit there. It's always welcome back to Intelligent Investment Live. Just get a little bored saying that. So I want to try something a little different today. Matt, Happy Friday to you.
[00:00:24] Speaker B: Last.
[00:00:24] Speaker A: Our. Our last face to face of the month of August. We get back, it will almost be fall. So good to see you, bud.
[00:00:33] Speaker B: Good to see you, too. I am thrilled. Summer is almost over.
[00:00:38] Speaker A: See, we've.
[00:00:38] Speaker B: We've left in my body.
I've sweated it all out.
[00:00:43] Speaker A: We've had a very odd August here. It's like I saw something the other day that the temperature in North Carolina went from 90 to 65. Like, I saw a state trooper.
That was pretty good line. But it has cooled off, like, dramatically and uncharacteristically fast year. It's been. I mean, it's like beautiful weather right now, but we don't usually get that in August. It's been a very odd, odd year. It doesn't sound like that happened in Vegas.
[00:01:07] Speaker B: I mean, actually July, obviously the numbers aren't up for August yet, but July was the mildest, I guess the coolest July we've had since 2015. It's been a pretty decent summer for Vegas, you know, but it's kind of like. I mean, you know, it's like the. I guess we found the cleanest dirty shirt and in the laundry mile. It's still gross.
[00:01:26] Speaker A: Yeah, that's not saying much for Vegas. That's the coolest summer for Vegas is still going to be hotter than most.
[00:01:33] Speaker C: Right, Right.
[00:01:34] Speaker B: It's like, you know, you found the. The tallest dwarf.
[00:01:39] Speaker A: I'm not sure if that's politically correct or not, but I don't know what is anymore, so we'll just roll with it. See, I don't know what's PC anymore.
[00:01:45] Speaker B: What's the right.
[00:01:46] Speaker A: I really don't. I don't know. I really don't know, like, what you're allowed to say anywhere anymore.
[00:01:50] Speaker B: It's. You can't say.
[00:01:52] Speaker A: Yeah, well, you just did, so there's that.
[00:01:56] Speaker B: Why did you want to point out anyone who's listening, you can't say midget. You should never say midget.
[00:02:00] Speaker C: Not good. Okay.
[00:02:03] Speaker A: All right. Well, what's going on in the. The world of Matt kind of a. I mean, we've talked about the last couple of shows. Not a whole lot going on historically this time of year in the markets this is kind of the quiet time. Anything discuss worthy.
[00:02:19] Speaker B: I mean the VIX actually popped up today 8% so it went to 15 and a half, which it's still really, really low. There's. Everyone is just on vacation. The institutional managers and traders, they're on vacation. The market makers, no one's, no one's really doing a whole bunch right now.
The market, in fact, if I look at it, we're still not seeing really any overly bearish or overly cautious really anything in the markets.
One thing that did strike.
[00:02:53] Speaker C: I thought.
[00:02:53] Speaker B: Was interesting as I look at the S P 500 and margin balance, finra margin balance against all circulation and are all currency in circulation.
And right now the S P500 market cap against all currency in circulation is about as high as it's ever been going back to about 1995.
[00:03:16] Speaker C: Right.
[00:03:17] Speaker B: What's interesting is the, the, the finner margin debt against all currency in circulation is about where it was in the height of 2021 and again in the height of 2018.
Nowhere near where it was in 2007 or where, or near where it was in like you know, 2000, but it's getting up there.
[00:03:38] Speaker A: What do you unpack that for me again? The S P5 or what was that stat again? Because it sounded like a, a currency slash stock market valuation crossover stat.
[00:03:49] Speaker B: So if you take all the currency in circulation, right.
The entire money supply, okay, you look at the market capitalization of the S P500.
The S P500 is registering right at 50% of that is number right now.
[00:04:04] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:04:05] Speaker B: So I'm sorry, it's point, it's. I'm sorry, I take that back. Looking at the wrong chart, it's registering right about a quarter of that, about 0.27.
[00:04:17] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:04:18] Speaker B: Of that number. So the S P market cap against all circulate money in circulation. So if long story short, The S P 500 has a market cap of about $60 trillion. So it goes to tell you we have about $240 trillion in circulation, if that makes sense.
[00:04:34] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:04:35] Speaker B: So you look at the.
[00:04:37] Speaker A: That's of all currencies, not just dollars or is that. That's just US Dollars currencies.
[00:04:42] Speaker B: US currencies okay.
[00:04:43] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:04:43] Speaker B: FINRA margin balances divided by currency is 42%.
[00:04:50] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:04:50] Speaker B: So it's actually higher. So we actually have more FINRA margin balance divided by currency and circulation.
So you know, none of these things are like flashing a red light, but they're flashing kind of a yellow light. You know, we want that there's just a Lot of the markets has, has moved, has moved considerably against, you know, the, the, the general money supply debt is up significantly against general money supply. Not that it can't, not, not that there's, I'm a bear in any way, but we've had a lot of money made, right. And there's a lot of people who are still quite bullish. You know, that's why there's so much, that's why there's so much margin debt out there. In fact, what's funny is if you look at the bullish, the AAII sentiment reading this week went from 30 to 35 this week, okay? It's still showing 39% bears, 35% bulls, 26% neutral. So what's funny is after all these, these, these, these record closing highs, we've had 23 record closing highs for the year, okay?
And now that sounds like a lot. 1995 we had 77.
[00:06:02] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:06:03] Speaker B: In 2018 we had 62. So we're, we're. So 2025 is not one of those years where it's setting a record of records, okay? And you kind of see it in.
[00:06:13] Speaker C: The AAI.
[00:06:16] Speaker B: Kind of sentiment reading. So we're not seeing, we're not seeing this overly bullish exuberance in the market. And you know, today the market just kind of, it's, it's not really going anywhere. The, the, the PCE came in 0.27, so rounded up to 0.3. So we had, you know, the 10 year pop from basically 421 to 424. Obviously, the market's selling off right now. Nvidia earnings came out, they only beat, they only beat by what?
A $80 share versus a $2 consensus. And then they gave guidance that was a billion dollars higher for Q3 than what consensus estimates were for Q3, only a billion.
[00:06:55] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:06:56] Speaker B: And it sold off a little bit. Okay?
They've increased revenues 56% from last year and they still sold off. Now, they didn't sell off all that bad, but they're still selling off. So, you know, it's, it's, it's. This reminds me a little bit of when I was a kid and I would go, I'd be skating down a hill on my skateboard and I was, you know, 12 years old, 13 years old, and you get some speed going and everything was going perfectly fine. No wind, no cars, no nothing.
But if you hit just the smallest little pebble, that skateboard wheel caught that, caught that little rock, you go flying. Now what's, you go flying off you get back on your skateboard and get going again.
[00:07:39] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:07:40] Speaker B: That's kind of where I think we're at. I don't think we're going to go flying and you know, it's going to be a big bearish, you know, a bear market or even. I don't even think it would amount to actual official correction before the end of the year. We might not get an official 10 correction by the end of the year. I think it's likely that we don't.
[00:07:56] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:07:57] Speaker B: But I do see the market is.
Everything is priced.
Everything is priced for everything going perfectly perfect.
[00:08:05] Speaker C: Right.
[00:08:06] Speaker B: So we kind of.
[00:08:07] Speaker A: The PC Perfectly perfect. Well said, perfectly perfect.
[00:08:10] Speaker B: So we knew the PC number was going to be, you know, a little hot. Based on the PPI number, based on what we've seen earlier in the month, that was kind of, it was a bit of an older number. But what we have coming up for 1st September is obviously the jolts numbers coming in or for July and we're getting the jobs number end of next week.
[00:08:29] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:08:30] Speaker B: And I think that's interesting.
[00:08:31] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:08:32] Speaker B: So I think right now bad news is bad news and overly good news is bad news. So there's a sweet spot right now.
[00:08:41] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:08:42] Speaker B: Where before, if we obviously had, you know, poor job numbers, that was good for, you know, your, your inflation, that was good for your, your interest rates coming down. Well, the market has clearly already priced in at least two rate cuts for this year remaining this year. We think there's gonna be three like Luke said, but they've already priced in at least two. So if we get a hot jobs number, and I mean hot, I don't mean hot, I mean hot comparative to consensus estimates, which would probably at this point just be about anything over 100,000 jobs that could cause an issue with that second rate cut or that third rate cut that might be priced in in November or December.
There's the rate cut that's happening in September. You can pretty much lock that one in and have it tattooed on your forearm. That one's going to happen. Based on what Jay Powell said at Jackson Hole. They know they have to do it. They're under tremendous pressure to do it. They know they should have cut before. In fact, Jay Powell said he would have cut in February, but he was uncertain about the, the tariff situation, which again, you know, we can debate whether that's a good strategy or not. I don't think it is, but that's what he decided to do. So I think we start bringing into questions some of those later in the year, maybe early next year, rate cuts that could bring that market down just a little bit.
But we're not seeing really any issues with earnings. S and P estimates now for 2020, 2026 are back over 300. You know last time we looked like 299, 298 and they finally touched 300 last week. Now they're up to 302. We're really starting to see those, those, those estimates tick up. You know, 97 of the s P has, has reported for this quarter. It's basically all the, all the earnings are in 83 beat estimates by a median 6%. It was a strong, strong quarter. And again revisions higher are at A, for 2026, for the, the month of August at an all time high ever. So earnings are strong, rates are coming down. This is a great, if you're looking at it through any sort of an intermediate or longer term lens, it's a wonderful time to invest. It's a great time to invest. We think markets are strong, economy strong. The regulatory environment's getting better, everything's it. But the market is just has done very, very well.
You know, we're sitting at 22 and a half times earnings right now. We're sitting at 27.2 times last 12 months earnings. Which goes to show you there's a lot of future earnings that are baked in. So we're kind of, we're just a little in the very short term in the next 30 to 45, maybe 60 days at the most. We're just not bearish at all. We're just cautious.
[00:11:16] Speaker A: Well, I mean we've also come, I mean not terribly close, but not terribly far off from doubling in the last three and a half, four years also. I mean we've had one heck of a tear for, you know, I think we're up like I was doing quick math right there, I think we're up about 10% for this year. Okay, 10%. But that's on top of what were we up like 25:30 last year on top of 2023. I mean it's been a multi year.
There have been some profits in the markets over the last five years, four years.
[00:11:48] Speaker B: Oh absolutely. I mean if you look at the, if you look at the October 12th low of the bear market, October 12th, 2022, that was the bear market low. That ended that bear market.
[00:11:57] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:11:58] Speaker B: The market from there moved up. That was 35:22 on the S P. Typically in a bear, in a bull market, we double that. Doubling takes about five years. So at 3522, that's 7044.
[00:12:09] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:12:09] Speaker B: Yeah, that's a double from there. We are at 64, we're almost, we're 6501 last night.
[00:12:14] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:12:15] Speaker B: So I mean you're talking 9% away from that doubling in three years instead of five. So there's been a lot. And of course I think that was fueled by obviously by AI. Okay, yeah, so there, there's been a lot, there's been a lot of, of, of returns, you know, that we've pulled forward. And I was doing a little bit of math on S P. S P for 2026 looks to be, or for 2027 or end of 2026 looks to be, you know, about 302, $303 a share. So right now we're sitting at 27 and a half times last trailing 12 months earnings.
[00:12:51] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:12:52] Speaker B: If you look at the last three years, okay. The, the, the, the trailing 12 month multiple is 23 and a half, a little higher than historical which is normally about 22. So if you take the 23 and a half trailing 12 month multiple and you stick that on 302, 303, you're looking about 7100, 7150 for 2026.
[00:13:12] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:13:12] Speaker B: So if we get that 686900 I think we've talked about this several times. I think, you know, we might have a really flat year next year.
[00:13:19] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:13:20] Speaker B: And I, I don't see next year necessarily being a bad year.
It could be one of those years where it's just kind of quiet and it just, we waste a lot of time coming to work because the market's not going, it's not overly volatile but it's not really moving that much and it's, it's, it's looking for things that can attach itself to. So you're really going to have to do it, you're going to have to do a very good job as an investment manager picking those winners and staying away from those losers because I think the index in and of itself will broaden out.
[00:13:50] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:13:51] Speaker B: But I don't know how much we're actually going to get as far as index growth next year simply because things are fully, fully, fully priced into 2026.
So you know, you look at, there's, we looked at a few things, I mean if you take like Nvidia 2020, any in a 2026 earnings looks about $6.30 a share. They typically trade their average trailing twelve month, you know, is 51.2 51.2 times trailing twelve months, they've been as high as 93. So if you just take the 630 at the end of next year, right, and you slap a 50 multiple on that, a trailing 12 month multiple and I think it'll be higher than we close to $7 a share.
[00:14:33] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:14:34] Speaker B: You're looking at 315 bucks a share. So we're putting about a 310 to $320 share price on Nvidia.
Okay, that's an 80, that represents about an 80% upside. So we really, we're still, we're still Team Nvidia. We think that's great. But looking at companies like, like Meta, it's a little different story. Strong, strong company, tremendous amount of capex and that's where we, I have yet to see some of that. Their money that they're spending really start to fold into those earnings. Okay, so in a 2026 earnings, we're looking about 29.90 a share, call it 30 bucks a share.
So their historical, you know, trailing 12 month average is about 26. So if you take about 26 and a half, you take, you know, 30 bucks a share or 20, 29.90 a share and you hang a 27 trailing multiple on that for the end of 2026, you're looking about 810 a share, about nine and a half, 10% upside from here. So you know, strong, strong company but not quite the power that your Nvidias have.
[00:15:37] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:15:37] Speaker B: But you know, if you take again back to S and P, well that's you know, 7100. If you take into 2026 now, now we're talking about 7100. So we finished this year at 68, 6900.
Right now you're talking what about 3% year next year? Okay, that we could have a 3% year. So next year is, I feel, is, is you have to really be careful where you allocate your assets to. Okay, where, where, you know, where you're allocating client dollars to. Because there's going to be, there's going to be a lot of winners. Okay, but there's going to be a lot of losers. And the losers are going to be, they're going to be great companies with great products. But their value, their, their, their value, their, their stock value, right? Their, their price, that's going to do a lot of me. There's going to be a lot of mean reversion that's happening next year to more of historic multiples. Good companies, good Earnings, no issues. But there's going to be a lot of mean reversion happening next year. And I think that could cause some consternation with the S and P.
[00:16:41] Speaker A: So I had a question and now I can't really decide if I want to ask the question or if I want to tee it up a little bit differently. Now the question I want to ask, what you're kind of describing is what I would kind of call like an alpha market or a stock picker's market. And then as I started to think through that, I thought, well, what causes the opposite to happen? So I don't know which would be a smarter place to start. But if you think post Covid, there was so much availability of cash in the economy that the prices of everything went up without really any distinction between one asset class or another. Heck, my 2016 Toyota 4Runner outperformed the S&P 500 in 2021. It was the most amazing stat I had ever seen. A used car that I added mileage to actually outperform the stock market in a pretty big up year.
[00:17:28] Speaker B: That was a pretty good year.
[00:17:30] Speaker A: That was a. It was a really good year. It was like 22%, but my 4Runner was up like 27 with 25,000 miles put on. It was pretty crazy.
[00:17:37] Speaker B: But anyway, options on it.
[00:17:40] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:17:43] Speaker A: But it's.
You don't.
I guess my. The question that I want to get to is what happens to trigger a change where there is a breakdown of correlation between asset classes again. And it does become that stock pickers market. Because on paper, you can always look at two stocks and understand intrinsically that one should be worth more than another based on peg ratios, based on their balance sheets, based on 100 different factors.
But you look at stock A, that's A PEG of 1.5, and stock B is a direct competitor that's at a peg of three and one is growing faster and it's healthier balance sheets and better earnings and everything.
And you have a big year that comes along. The market's up 27%, company A is up 32, company B is up 31 or 33 or 35.
What has to happen fundamentally, mechanically, whatever, to make investors actually start treating company A better than company B and start putting their money behind one company versus another, rather than just dumping a doll in an index and that being the rising tide that lifts all boats, so to speak.
[00:18:52] Speaker C: What.
[00:18:53] Speaker B: I think you just answered your own question there.
[00:18:55] Speaker C: I mean, I did.
[00:18:56] Speaker B: That's the thing is you've got. You've got so much indexing happening now, right? And you have, I don't know what the right word is here. You have this lack of enthusiasm, let's just put it that way, or good old fashioned laziness where people don't want to get in there and do the work and pull out the data for each individual company and build a portfolio, you know, like a grown up and they just throw it into an index fund. Now we have portfolios here that, we call them our macro portfolios which are, they're ETF based and we'll look sectors and things like that. But those are for, specifically for clients who don't like individual stocks.
[00:19:31] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:19:32] Speaker B: They don't like individual stocks and so we have to have a place for them. But for the most part our portfolios are made up of or comprised of individual stocks because that's where we do the work. But the work of the individual stocks.
When you do that, that paints a picture of the market and the sectors within the market very, very well. So we start from a bottom up approach. We kind of do a bottom and a top down approach. We kind of meet somewhere in the middle and we look at all the data in between.
So you know, I mean if you look at a company like, you look at a company like, well like Google, right? $10.64 a share, end of 20, 26, okay, 25 times trailing 12 month multiplus 266 bucks a share. That's about a 25 upside from here.
[00:20:16] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:20:17] Speaker B: So do I want, do I want to allocate to that? And then, you know, they, they trade, you know, at a nice discount to their peers, okay. With a nice growth rate about 16.3%.
[00:20:27] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:20:28] Speaker B: And you have to understand that relationship.
[00:20:30] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:20:31] Speaker B: So you know, it's funny, we had some really, some, some clients in here yesterday, great guys.
And he, they were there, they were, he was sort of showing me his, his portfolio that he had created himself over the course of many several years.
[00:20:46] Speaker C: Right.
[00:20:47] Speaker B: And I looked at it and I said, you've got a lot of friends.
And he goes, wow, you're right.
[00:20:53] Speaker C: That's exactly what that is.
[00:20:55] Speaker B: I got a hot top. I got, I got, I got a, I got, I got a hot pick. I got this, I got this, this one's going to double as.
But there's no actual thesis to this.
It's just what is this, you know, a lot of little energy companies, a lot of little things here and there, but there's no, there's no economic direction saying point, point, here go this way, this is, these are where the earnings are going, this is where the economy's headed and that's what needs to take place is.
So if you didn't know any better, well, I'm gonna buy, I'm gonna buy, let's say you've got, I don't know, 100,000 bucks and when you want to buy Nvidia, Google or Meta. Now, I think Meta is a strong, strong company. I think it's going to do really, really, really well over time. Don't get me, there's no issues with it, with, with Meta. But if I'm staring at this, I would still buy Meta, you know, over buying the S and P index fund.
But if I, you know, I would probably buy, I would certainly overweight Nvidia, I would certainly overweight Google and I would, and I would probably market weight Meta. Okay, and that's, and that's how you would want to construct that, that's how I would go about constructing that portfolio is I would look for, you know, good, strong companies with good earnings that have better balance sheets than the average in the market, better growth in the average of the market, you know, better PEG ratios in the market, figure out what a fair share price will be 15 months from now, and then back that into where we think the market's going to be about 15 months from now. And, and then try to construct it that way. So it's a time consuming, difficult process. And I'm going to get it wrong, right? It's just I want to get it less wrong than other people.
That's always the goal.
[00:22:37] Speaker A: It can be. I mean, for me it was frustrating when, you know, let's just say that you take the time and the energy and the brain power and you have the brain power and you have the knowledge and whatever to go through line by line. All 500 companies in the S&P 500 perform a thorough analysis and you get it right and you have you fairly correctly and accurately project which hundred are going to be the best performing 20%, which 100 is going to be the bottom feeders, which 300 are going to be kind of in the middle. You overweight the good, you underweight the bad, and then everybody else just goes out and starts writing checks for the s and P500.
A money manager has a really hard time outperforming the s and P500 when everybody is just putting money into the s and P500 because that index is just going out and buying on market cap weighting. And there seem to be more and more, as you said earlier, index driven products and more people putting money into index products and it becomes a self fulfilling thing that the s and P500 will be the best. It makes it harder for professional money managers to beat the S&P 500 when everybody is putting their money into the S&P 500. Right.
But there's always a cycle of what I've heard referred to as a beta driven market which is just everything goes up versus an alpha market which is where your top performers are going to be up 28% but your bad performers are going to be down 27 and the overall market might be relatively flat.
Is there a catalyst for someone like you to know now we're getting into that type of season where there's going to be a discrepancy between the top and bottom performers and the indexes or is it just something that's a process that plays itself out eventually? Through what, what finally makes the undervalued company catch up to full value and realize that that value that you were trying to capture in your portfolios.
[00:24:35] Speaker B: Well, I guess that's the $64,000 question, right?
Is the companies that are the, have been the good performers are they, have they performed so well and their valuation is so extended against their earnings and their fundamentals that there's, you're just now buying those future earnings, okay. And you're buying a percentage of those future earnings because a lot of those future earnings have also been priced in and you're also, you know, you're getting a percentage of, of the lower discount rates already.
[00:25:09] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:10] Speaker B: Versus other companies maybe who have not participated in that. But they're, they're starting to. Well, maybe they're becoming the beneficiaries of some of these larger companies, right? Like, like maybe a, like an scs, like an scmi, like a super computer. They, they make parts for Nvidia. They're, they're all, they're all over the place.
[00:25:28] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:25:29] Speaker B: But they provide materials to Nvidia. TSMC is not. Taiwan Semiconductor has not performed with Nvidia. It's been a good, it's been a good position but it's not performed with Nvidia. But it provides, you know, it manufactures chips for Nvidia.
So you have look at companies like that where they're doing well but, and they've participated but there's, there's more left for them. So that's when you start getting that, that breadth expansion and maybe some of your high flyers that are doing, doing actually doing quite well and have Good future earnings and great growth rates, even good PEG ratios, you might actually start to see the mean river, okay. And have a down year in a good fundamental year.
And that's where you, and honestly that's where you have to sort of take, you have to wear all hats, okay. And say, okay, well, the fundamentals are the fundamentals. We know we're going to get mean reversions because if, you know, Howard Marks says it better than anyone else, you know, bubbles don't last long.
They always revert to the mean.
[00:26:26] Speaker C: Okay?
[00:26:27] Speaker B: So we have to then look at what's the market deciding and how is it deciding what speed is deciding. And you have to really put on sort of your technical hat for that and take a look. And, and you know, and although I, like I said before, I'm not a technical analyst anyway, I'm a fundamentalist, you know, by heart, I do want to know what the market's deciding and at what speed the market is deciding. These things I look at on daily and a weekly is my preferred gauge, but a monthly is nice to see what a longer, you know, on a longer term basis. So not just what it's doing on a daily basis, but how the momentum and that sort of the moving average convergence divergence is working. And I can, then what you start to see is as you put together these portfolios, okay, these, these companies in this sector are kind of rolling over these companies in these sectors, they're starting to pick up a little bit of momentum. And then you can start measuring the sectors both on a cap weighted basis.
[00:27:19] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:27:19] Speaker B: But what I like to do is measure the sectors on an equal weighted basis so I can see what the breadth, the momentum, it looks like on a, I can actually measure breadth momentum that way.
[00:27:28] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:27:29] Speaker B: And we start to see momentum pick up across the board on an equal weighted basis. That's usually a good sign. The other thing we do is if the market we think is going to sort of contract as a whole, we start to look at defensive sectors against your more growth sector. So like if your consumer discretionary starts to roll over, lose momentum and starts to contract against its consumer staple counterpart on an equal weighted basis, okay, that's another way for us to kind of measure where people are sort of where money flows are they are they flowing to the more discretionary growthy parts of the market or are they starting to revert back to more your consumer stables? Your.
Is the market sort of starting to take more of a defensive stance? And the market generally kind of does that, you know, it kind of takes a defensive stance or more of a growthy stance. You know, it rarely, once in a while you'll have like we had utilities kind of pop this year because of all the power generation requirements of AI. But for the most part, you can kind of get a general tilt of the market. So that's, and, and that's basically general mean conversion is people put money into the growth parts of the market and you know they're going to do well for a long, long time. And then when that starts, when those earnings are, you know, they've done what they needed to do and those earnings are stretched and they're, maybe they're overstretched, but the market is still doing okay and the economy's still doing okay, maybe those company, maybe those money flows will go into your consumer staples, go into your utilities, go into more of your real estates.
[00:28:53] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:28:54] Speaker B: And you can actually kind of measure those things and it starts taking more of a defensive posture. I can't hear you.
[00:29:01] Speaker A: That happens when you hit the mute button and you don't unhit it when you're ready to talk. I still have myself muted so you wouldn't hear my mouse clicking. But anyway, I was saying thanks for your insights. And it sounds like you got a pretty big weekend coming up here with some folks coming in, family coming into town, and you've got a nice Labor Day planned. It sounds like it's gonna be wonderful.
[00:29:24] Speaker B: My beautiful daughter, daughters are both in town and my oldest daughter is getting married in early October.
So everyone's in town for the bridal shower and the girls are going to go wear little hats and sip tea. The boys are going to go to an Irish pub and eat fish and chips and drink beer.
[00:29:43] Speaker A: Sounds awesome. Well, enjoy yourself, have a great time and hope you have a great Labor Day man. And for listeners, viewers, if you're watching us, as always, Intelligent Investment show is just for entertainment and education purposes only. Do not go and buy the stocks that Matt talks about and say that we told you to do it if it doesn't work out. If you would like to talk to Matt and his team, you can give them a call at 7026-5570-2655-8300 or visit intelligent investment.com and you can reach out to them and schedule a time to chat about your personal financial and investment situation.
Matt, appreciate it, my friend, as always. And we'll see you next week.
[00:30:24] Speaker B: See you next week.
[00:30:25] Speaker A: Have a great weekend.
[00:30:26] Speaker D: Discussions in the Intelligent Investment show are for educational purposes only. The information presented should not be considered specific investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular course of action. All Always consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation before making investment or financial decisions. The views and opinions expressed are based on current economic and market conditions and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that any statements of future expectations will come to fruition. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. Securities offered through United Planners Financial Services Member FINRA SIPC Advisory services offered through American Retirement Planning Group. ARPG and United Planners are independent companies. Garrett, Lille and Wealth Partners are not affiliated with ARPG or United Planners. Any endorsement that I may have given during this recording it is important to note that I am not a client of arpg. The views expressed should not be considered representative in any way of my past, present or future experience with MAT or arpg. No incentives have been provided to me in connection with any endorsements I may have given on the Intelligent Investment Show. Investing involves risks and there is no guarantee of any future results, performance or success.
